2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Local Proposition Betting Odds
–The Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1 through November 30.
–Tropical Storm Arlene formed in late April becoming the first named storm of 2017 but quickly dissipated.
–At the time of publication there were no active storm systems being tracked in the Atlantic Basin.
The third and final set of 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season odds (at least for now) will look at the probability of individual cities being impacted by a hurricane. The original plan was to set odds for every major city in the United States but after looking at the data that was revealed to be a silly idea. The majority of the country–and the states and cities within–have ‘slim’ and ‘no’ chance of being in the line of a tropical storm and would thus be priced accordingly. Every part of their country deals with their own type of severe weather but tropical storms are definitely not an issue in most of the United States. Kansas, for example, deals with tornados but hurricanes just aren’t happening there. The Intermountain West can get heavy snow but not tropical storms. Southern California is infamous for their own strange and severe weather but there’s just not a threat of hurricanes hitting the area–and particularly not out of the Atlantic Basin.
In the previous article reviewing the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season State betting odds we learned that only 19 US states have experienced a hurricane strike since 1851. These states are:
Florida
Texas
Louisiana
North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Alabama
Mississippi
Virginia
New York
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
Connecticut
Maine
Maryland
Delaware
New Jersey
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania
These states are the ones with individual prices set on their tropical storm prospects in the article linked above. The rest of the country is grouped into the ‘every other state’ category and I priced them at +15000 to be the first US states hit by a hurricane or a major hurricane (Categories 3,4 or 5) this season(150/1 or 151.00 in fractional and digital odds formats). The implied probability at +15000 is 0.66% and realistically this moneyline price should be much higher. The ‘true odds’ are likely less than 0.10% and at that number the corresponding moneyline price would be +99900 (999/1 or 1000.00 in fractional and decimal odds).
For this reason we’ve limited the cities covered in the Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season odds to those in the 19 states that have at least a theoretical risk of being hit by a hurricane. If this list doesn’t include your hometown find the city nearest your hometown and in most cases they’ll have similar odds. For example, I’d price Hilton Head Island, South Carolina the same as I would Savannah, Georgia thirty miles away. There are a few exceptions but this will get you ‘in the ballpark’. If you want precise odds for your specific locale get in touch and I’ll be happy to work them out for you.
Look for more storm coverage and odds later in the season. Also, look for an article in the next week or so reviewing this history of hurricane betting and speculation. That’s a subject I get a lot of questions about and want to cover it in detail.
2017 ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE SEASON PROPOSITION BETTING ODDS
CITY HURRICANE PROPOSITIONS
Will a hurricane pass within 100 miles of Brownsville, Texas during the 2017 Atlantic Basin season?
Yes: +1250
No: -2500
Will a major hurricane (category 3, 4 or 5) pass within 100 miles of Brownsville, Texas during the 2017 Atlantic Basin season?
Yes: +3750
No: -7500
Will a hurricane pass within 100 miles of Corpus Christi, Texas during the 2017 Atlantic Basin season?
Yes: +1250
No: -2500
Will a major hurricane (category 3, 4 or 5) pass within 100 miles of Corpus Christi, Texas during the 2017 Atlantic Basin season?
Yes: +3750
No: -7500
Will a hurricane pass within 100 miles of Galveston, Texas during the 2017 Atlantic Basin season?
Yes: +550
No: -950
Will a major hurricane (category 3, 4 or 5) pass within 100 miles of Galveston, Texas during the 2017 Atlantic Basin season?
Yes: +1750
No: -3500
Will a hurricane pass within 100 miles of New Orleans, Louisiana during the 2017 Atlantic Basin season?
Yes: +550
No: -950
Will a major hurricane (category 3, 4 or 5) pass within 100 miles of New Orleans, Louisiana during the 2017 Atlantic Basin season?
Yes: +2500
No: -5000
Will a hurricane pass within 100 miles of Biloxi, Mississippi during the 2017 Atlantic Basin season?
Yes: +750
No: -1500
Will a major hurricane (category 3, 4 or 5) pass within 100 miles of Biloxi, Mississippi during the 2017 Atlantic Basin season?
Yes: +2500
No: -5000
Will a hurricane pass within 100 miles of Mobile, Alabama during the 2017 Atlantic Basin season?
Yes: +750
No: -1500
Will a major hurricane (category 3, 4 or 5) pass within 100 miles of Mobile, Alabama during the 2017 Atlantic Basin season?
Yes: +2500
No: -5000
Will a hurricane pass within 100 miles of Panama City, Florida during the 2017 Atlantic Basin season?
Yes: +450
No: -900
Will a major hurricane (category 3, 4 or 5) pass within 100 miles of Panama City, Florida during the 2017 Atlantic Basin season?
Yes: +1750
No: -3500
Will a hurricane pass within 100 miles of Tampa, Florida during the 2017 Atlantic Basin season?
Yes: +425
No: -850
Will a major hurricane (category 3, 4 or 5) pass within 100 miles of Tampa, Florida during the 2017 Atlantic Basin season?
Yes: +1250
No: -2500
Will a hurricane pass within 100 miles of Fort Meyers, Florida during the 2017 Atlantic Basin season?
Yes: +425
No: -850
Will a major hurricane (category 3, 4 or 5) pass within 100 miles of Fort Meyers, Florida during the 2017 Atlantic Basin season?
Yes: +1250
No: -2500
Will a hurricane pass within 100 miles of Key West, Florida during the 2017 Atlantic Basin season?
Yes: +375
No: -750
Will a major hurricane (category 3, 4 or 5) pass within 100 miles of Key West, Florida during the 2017 Atlantic Basin season?
Yes: +1000
No: -1750
Will a hurricane pass within 100 miles of Miami, Florida during the 2017 Atlantic Basin season?
Yes: +250
No: -300
Will a major hurricane (category 3, 4 or 5) pass within 100 miles of Miami, Florida during the 2017 Atlantic Basin season?
Yes: +550
No: -1100
Will a hurricane pass within 100 miles of Cape Canaveral, Florida during the 2017 Atlantic Basin season?
Yes: +425
No: -850
Will a major hurricane (category 3, 4 or 5) pass within 100 miles of Cape Canaveral, Florida during the 2017 Atlantic Basin season?
Yes: +1250
No: -2500
Will a hurricane pass within 100 miles of Jacksonville, Florida during the 2017 Atlantic Basin season?
Yes: +850
No: -1700
Will a major hurricane (category 3, 4 or 5) pass within 100 miles of Jacksonville, Florida during the 2017 Atlantic Basin season?
Yes: +3500
No: -7000
Will a hurricane pass within 100 miles of Savannah, Georgia during the 2017 Atlantic Basin season?
Yes: +1150
No: -2300
Will a major hurricane (category 3, 4 or 5) pass within 100 miles of Savannah, Georgia during the 2017 Atlantic Basin season?
Yes: +4500
No: -9000
Will a hurricane pass within 100 miles of Charleston, SC during the 2017 Atlantic Basin season?
Yes: +850
No: -1700
Will a major hurricane (category 3, 4 or 5) pass within 100 miles of Charleston, SC during the 2017 Atlantic Basin season?
Yes: +3500
No: -7000
Will a hurricane pass within 100 miles of Myrtle Beach, SC during the 2017 Atlantic Basin season?
Yes: +850
No: -1700
Will a major hurricane (category 3, 4 or 5) pass within 100 miles of Myrtle Beach, SC during the 2017 Atlantic Basin season?
Yes: +3500
No: -7000
Will a hurricane pass within 100 miles of Wilmington, NC during the 2017 Atlantic Basin season?
Yes: +300
No: -450
Will a major hurricane (category 3, 4 or 5) pass within 100 miles of Wilmington, NC during the 2017 Atlantic Basin season?
Yes: +1250
No: -2500
Will a hurricane pass within 100 miles of Virginia Beach, VA during the 2017 Atlantic Basin season?
Yes: +1250
No: -2500
Will a major hurricane (category 3, 4 or 5) pass within 100 miles of Virginia Beach, VA during the 2017 Atlantic Basin season?
Yes: +3750
No: -7500
Will a hurricane pass within 100 miles of Ocean City, MD during the 2017 Atlantic Basin season?
Yes: +2750
No: -5500
Will a major hurricane (category 3, 4 or 5) pass within 100 miles of Ocean City, MD during the 2017 Atlantic Basin season?
Yes: +4750
No: -9500
Will a hurricane pass within 100 miles of Atlantic City, NJ during the 2017 Atlantic Basin season?
Yes: +2750
No: -5500
Will a major hurricane (category 3, 4 or 5) pass within 100 miles of Atlantic City, NJ during the 2017 Atlantic Basin season?
Yes: +4750
No: -9500
Will a hurricane pass within 100 miles of New York City during the 2017 Atlantic Basin season?
Yes: +1500
No: -3000
Will a major hurricane (category 3, 4 or 5) pass within 100 miles of New York City during the 2017 Atlantic Basin season?
Yes: +2750
No: -5500
Will a hurricane pass within 100 miles of Providence, RI during the 2017 Atlantic Basin season?
Yes: +850
No: -1700
Will a major hurricane (category 3, 4 or 5) pass within 100 miles of Providence, RI during the 2017 Atlantic Basin season?
Yes: +3500
No: -7000
Will a hurricane pass within 100 miles of Nantucket, MA during the 2017 Atlantic Basin season?
Yes: +550
No: -950
Will a major hurricane (category 3, 4 or 5) pass within 100 miles of Nantucket, MA during the 2017 Atlantic Basin season?
Yes: +2500
No: -5000
Will a hurricane pass within 100 miles of Boston, MA during the 2017 Atlantic Basin season?
Yes: +1650
No: -3300
Will a major hurricane (category 3, 4 or 5) pass within 100 miles of Boston, MA during the 2017 Atlantic Basin season?
Yes: +4900
No: -9800
Will a hurricane pass within 100 miles of Portland, ME during the 2017 Atlantic Basin season?
Yes: +2750
No: -5500
Will a major hurricane (category 3, 4 or 5) pass within 100 miles of Boston, MA during the 2017 Atlantic Basin season?
Yes: +9750
No: -19500