Underdogs Minnesota Look to Steal One in Boston

Who: Minnesota Twins v. Boston Red Sox

When: Monday June 26th, 2017 7:10PM EST

Where: Fenway Park—Boston, Massachusetts

When the Minnesota Twins travel to Boston this week, they will be doing so on the back of 3 consecutive wins, which also worked as a 3-game sweep of the Cleveland Indians. Now in 1st place in the AL Central, the Twins will be looking to extend their winning streak and their lead atop the division. Perhaps even more interesting than the unlikely prospect of the Twins leading their division is the pitching matchup we have in store for the first game of this series.

On Monday, the Twins will send right-hander Jose Barrios to the mound, and he will face off against Boston Ace Chris Sale. With both of these teams in need of wins to maintain their respective positions on top of their divisions, this series will be one to watch for sure.

Monday’s Pitching Matchup

While the Twins (+190) are entering their first game with the Red Sox this week on the back of 3 straight wins, the Red Sox are reeling. Though they are still fighting for the AL East divisional lead with the Yankees, the Red Sox (-220) have now lost 3 of their last 4, including 2 of 3 to the Los Angeles Angels this past weekend.

The series is looking like it is going to start off with fireworks thanks to these two teams’ best pitchers being sent to the mound. For Boston, Chris Sale (9-3 2.85 ERA) has been solid throughout the first half of the season. The left-hander is working on 10 wins and is looking to make Monday his 6th win in his last 7 outings. Making his season look even better is the fact that his most recent loss—the first he has had since April—was a 1-0 decision against the Phillies. In that outing, Sale pitched a solid 8 innings, but received no help from his offense.

On the mound for the Twins will be Jose Berrios (7-1 2.67 ERA), who has stats quite similar to Sale’s. Berrios, like Sale, has a 4-1 record in his last 5 starts and has been racking up strikeouts in the process.

As far as the offensive matchup is concerned, we are looking at a Minnesota team that does not score a lot, but scores effectively. In their last 5 wins, the Twins have only scored 5 or more runs on 2 occasions, and have held their opponents to 2 or fewer runs in every win except for one. This tells us that the Twins’ pitching staff is a large part of the reason Minnesota is now sitting atop their division. When it comes to the Red Sox, however, the story is a bit different. In most of their recent wins, the Red Sox have both scored a good amount as well as conceded a good amount. It seems that most of their wins sees their offense simply out-bat the opposing team. In other words, Boston’s pitching, for the most part, is less than stellar on the whole.

Game Analysis and Betting Prediction

Before we get into Monday’s matchup specifically, it is only right that we first talk about the series prices. On Bovada, the Red Sox are currently listed as -260 favorites to take at least 2 wins from this 3-game series. Conversely, the Twins are listed at +200 to win 2 or more games this series. Right off the bat, I see a lot of value in taking the Twins (+200) in this one. For one, they just swept the Indians in Cleveland, so we know they can win on the road. In addition to this, the Red Sox were nearly swept at home by the Angels. As such, I would not be at all surprised to see the Twins take 2 games.

With the way Boston has been hitting lately, I am of the opinion that they are going to have a tough time against Jose Berrios on Monday. Berrios has regularly been striking out 6+ players per outing, and has given up more than 2 earned runs on only one occasion in his last 10 starts. Thanks to this, I not only think that you need to take the Twins to win, you also need to take the Red Sox team under.

According to Bovada, the over/under for the Red Sox as a team is listed at 4.5 (-120/-105). I trily do not think that Berrios will concede many runs, and as a result I think you should take Boston’s under (-105). What’s more, I think a Twins (+185) moneyline bet is also something you should look into. The way I see it, the Twins have been a potent offensive team, the Red Sox have not. If the Red Sox are being matched up with a pitcher who is doing as well as Berrios has been, I do not see them scoring all that many runs.