Underdog Reds to Receive Little Relief in Game 2 with Brewers
Who: Cincinnati Reds v. Milwaukee Brewers
When: Wednesday September 27th, 2017 8:10PM EST
Where: Miller Park—Milwaukee Wisconsin
The AL Wild Card race may be officially done and dusted already, but the NL installation is just beginning to heat up with 5 games remaining for most teams. The Diamondbacks have secured their first NL Wild Card spot, but the 2nd remains up for grabs, and the Brewers are one of 2 teams (the other being St. Louis). They will greet Cincinnati for the 2nd game in a 3-game series. Game 1 went the way of the Brewers by a score of 7-6, and that was far too close for a team that has just about no margin for error.
The Brew Crew have only 5 games remaining, and with St. Louis just a single game behind them there is a general consensus that there is absolutely no room for error. Luckily for them, the Reds came into town last night and there is perhaps no better opponent for them to be facing when they are in need of wins. The Brewers are not playing the best baseball they have played all season, but the Reds are playing even worse. In fact, after Tuesday’s loss, Cincinnati will enter Wednesday night’s matchup in the midst of a 7-game losing streak. Hoping to close out the season in respectable fashion, you would think that the Reds are going to try and salvage a few wins for themselves, as well as knock the Brewers out of playoff contention.
The Brewers need to win these games against the Reds; that is the simple fact of the matter. The Reds are in poor form, the season and playoffs are on the line, and Milwaukee will be playing in front of what is sure to be a packed house. All things are pointing in the direction of a Brewers win, but that much remains to be seen.
Game Overview and Analysis
When the Cincinnati Reds (+150) take the field on Wednesday, they will be sending Homer Bailey (5-9 6.96 ERA) to the mound. It is incredibly difficult for anyone on the Reds to be expected to pitch well, but the Reds’ starting rotation has been slammed by just about everyone it faces. Homer’s 10-game log shows that he has gone 3-4 in his last 10 starts, and I think it goes without saying that he regularly gives up 4+ runs. I truly do not think Bailey will make it through even 4 innings in this one and I think the Brewers will take advantage of his lack of control early and often.
As for the Reds’ batters, they came alive last night, but good hitting seems to be an exception rather than the norm for Cincinnati. If they can score another 6+ runs tonight they will give themselves a fighting chance at breaking the losing streak, but that much does not seem likely, especially when you consider that they’ve been held to fewer than 6 runs in the 5 games that preceded last night.
The Brewers (-160) will send Brandon Woodruff (2-2 3.76 ERA) to the mound, and though he is only a rookie he is poised to really begin making a name for himself. Before he can make a name for himself, however, he needs to navigate what will assuredly be his final start of the season. Making this an interesting proposition is the fact that his last 3 starts have seen him give up 4, 3, and 6 earned runs respectively. He needs to work on his control, but I think he will be able to take care of the Reds.
If the Brewers’ bats cant have even an average night there will be few concerns for their fans. Should they be able to get even 4 runs across the plate, I seriously like their chances of winning. Even if Woodruff does have a poor night, I think Milwaukee’s hitters can make up for that without too much trouble. Plus, they will want to enter the playoffs with some momentum so it is imperative that they get runners on base and subsequently across the plate.
Betting Prediction
As far as the moneyline goes, I think you have to go with the Brewers (-160). Woodruff has had a rough go of things recently, but the pitcher is supported by some solid hitting; something that cannot be said about Homer Bailey and his Reds teammate.
As for the point spread as listed by BetOnline, I think the -1.5 (+120) is the bet to take. Milwaukee might have only won by a single run on Tuesday, but I do not think the Reds will score nearly as many runs on Wednesday.
Finally, the team over/under for the Brewers is listed at an even 5 runs (-135/+105). I do think the Brew Crew’s offense is strong enough, and that Homer Bailey is inconsistent enough, for the Brewers to get 5+ runs across the plate.