Underdog Red Bulls Look to Grab 3 Points in New England
Who: New England Revolution v. New York Red Bulls
When: Wednesday July 5th, 2017 7:30PM EST
Where: Gillette Stadium—Foxborough, Massachusetts
When the Revolution meet up with the Red Bulls outside of Boston on Wednesday night, there are sure to be fireworks. This rivalry is a storied one, and also won that has seen the home side win the last 7 consecutive matches. This is not the first time these two sides have met this season, and New York will look to undo a streak in order to claim their second win of the season against a struggling New England side. When these two sides met back in May, an early New England goal from the spot was undone thanks to goals by Bradley Wright-Phillips and Daniel Royer.
New England currently sit second to last in the East, while the Red Bulls sit in 7th. For New York especially, this match is an important one. The Red Bulls have been falling down the Eastern Conference for the last few weeks, and are about to be skipped over by the Philadelphia Union, a team they have defeated a few times this season so far. The midweek match is an interesting one which sees some players coming off of minimal rest, so expect fatigue to inevitably play a factor tonight.
Match Overview and Analysis
The first thing that sticks out about this match is that New England (+105) will be without a few key players thanks to them having been called up to their respective national teams. Starters Juan Agudelo (USA), Kelyn Rowe (USA), and Je-Vaughn Watson (Jamaica) will all be missing from New England’s starting lineup. Agudello is the one whose absence will likely be most noticeable, seeing as he is the team’s goal-scoring leader with 7 so far during this 2017 MLS campaign. With Agudello out, all the attacking weight will be placed directly on the shoulders of Lee Nguyen. Nguyen was able to score from the PK spot during New England’s last encounter with New York, though as we mentioned above it was not enough to prevent the Revs from losing.
New York (+240) will not be missing as many players thanks to international duty. Missing from the Red Bulls’ lineup will be defender Kamar Lawrence (Jamaica) and Michael Murillo (Panama). Both of these two players have played a major role in most recent games for New York, and it is difficult to envision their absence not being overly palpable. Though the veteran Aaron Long will do his best to hold down the back line, it will be interesting to see how the 33-year old can handle New England’s pacy attack.
As far as what to expect from this match, I would anticipate that things will be generally quiet more often than not. While New York missing players in their defense might seem like a big deal, it works out in their favor seeing as some of New England’s best attacking options will be nowhere to be found. All things considered, I feel as though this is going to be one of the more boring matches during this midweek round of fixtures.
Betting Predictions
Bovada currently lists the New York Red Bulls as +240 underdogs on the moneyline. This is a wager that presents bettors with the possibility of some great value. While I will concede that New York being without defenders is somewhat worrisome, the fact that Sacha Kljestan and Bradley Wright-Phillips are starting up top helps alleviate some of my concern. I am not going to completely discredit the possibility of a draw (+255), but I honestly have to say that I think New York are the superior team. What’s more, New England play in a massive NFL stadium, meaning that homefield advantage is not so much a thing as it is in other arenas.
Bovada is offering an alternative over/under that sees the total goals listed at 3 (+115/-140). Seeing as this match is featuring two teams missing a bunch of players, I really like the under for this proposition (-140). The -140 odds are great, and the fact that it is an even-numbered over/under means that there is a possibility for a push.
My risky wager for this match is a Half Time/Full Time proposition. For those who may be unaware, the Half Time/Full Time prop is a single bet where you are wagering on what the outcome at both halftime and full time will be. For this one, a bet on a draw at half and Red Bulls to win (Draw/New York) is listed at +650 odds. My reasoning for pushing this wager is two-fold. For one, the injection of new players means, to me, that the game will get off to a slower pace than it would otherwise. Secondly, I think New York will inevitably emerge as the better team. So, while it may take some time, I do firmly believe that New York will net the opening goal in the second half and then cruise to a crucial 3-point victory.