Total Solar Eclipse 2017 Proposition Betting Odds

–A rare total eclipse of the sun will be available to some Americans on August 21, 2017.

–Everyone in North America will see at least a partial eclipse.

–Cities in the path of totality are bracing for a massive influx of tourists.

It’s somewhat surprising what a big event the upcoming total solar eclipse has become. Sure, it’s a rare occurence–the last one in America was back in 1979–but that doesn’t explain the massive ‘eclipse hysteria’ that has grasped the general public and the media. The major network news outlets are planning to devote hours of live coverage to the eclipse. CNN is expecting a huge audience for their eclipse coverage that they’re using the opportunity to debut a new live advertising format on the network. Any media property with the flimsiest pretext to do so is going to be covering the eclipse in depth.

It’s not unusual for the media to go overboard for events like this but this appears to be one instance where the general public is along for the ride. Carbondale, Illinois is one of the main destinations for eclipse watchers and they say they’re ‘expecting over 90,000 visitors’ in the usually sleepy hamlet during the eclipse week. Even cities that aren’t in the direct ‘path of totality’ are trying to milk the eclipse for everything it’s worth. The most desperate in the media are trying to somehow tie the eclipse to President Donald Trump and suggest that it’s a harbinger of doom.

WHAT IS A SOLAR ECLIPSE?

Here’s the official NASA explanation of what a solar eclipse actually is:

This celestial event is a solar eclipse in which the moon passes between the sun and Earth and blocks all or part of the sun for up to about three hours, from beginning to end, as viewed from a given location. For this eclipse, the longest period when the moon completely blocks the sun from any given location along the path will be about two minutes and 40 seconds. The last time the contiguous U.S. saw a total eclipse was in 1979.

So basically it’ll get dark for a couple of minutes in the middle of the day which is definitely a trippy effect but not necessarily a cause of mass hysteria. People living above the Arctic Circle experience it to a much more significant degree every Winter. But America being America, there is a profound lack of realization that there’s a whole world beyond the US borders. And America being America, the ‘Total Eclipse of 2017’ is a perfect opportunity for every quick buck huckster to come out of hiding selling knock off eclipse viewing glasses and commemorative t-shirts.

To be sure, it would have been difficult to create a more marketable eclipse if someone drew it up for a Powerpoint presentation. The eclipse will cut a narrow path across the United States starting on the Oregon Coast and ending in Coastal South Carolina near Charleston. It bypasses most of the major cities in America–Nashville, Tennessee is the only approximating a significant metro area in the path of totality–which means that it won’t cause a major disruption to the economic, social and artistic creative centers. Instead, it will take a narrow route through sparsely populated Western States, the ‘flyover country’ of the Midwest and the deep South. That it provides many cities and towns that usually don’t have much going for them with a perfect marketing gimmick is just an ‘ancillary benefit’.

SETTING ODDS ON THE ECLIPSE

Here at Sports Betting Experts we just can’t let any type of major event take place without setting odds on it. If we do, it just feels like we’re not doing our jobs. With that thought in mind, I set about creating odds for the ‘Total Eclipse of 2017’. The first problem–science has long ago gotten this whole ‘movement of celestial bodies’ thing pretty well figured out. That means that even with a rare event like a total eclipse there’s very little ambiguity involved. Scientists have already figured out when it’ll begin and end as well as the duration of the eclipse from various vantage points along the route.

The second problem–there’s a lot of ancillary events ascribed to the eclipse from an influx of tourists to a surge in ‘human trafficking’ (a canard that REASON magazine debunks every year at Super Bowl time). Unfortunately, while there are countless ‘ancillary events’ that will happen because or in conjunction with the eclipse there’s little in the way of concrete data. In fact, there’s little definite information at all–a lot of ‘experts are expecting’ or ‘sources say’. That might be good enough for clickbait headlines but definitely not good enough for a betting proposition which necessitates specificity in the wording of the bet and a definitive outcome with which to grade it.

If you’ve read our stuff in the past you know I love setting odds on weather related events and that’s where we’ll start with our ‘Eclipse odds’. More specifically, I figured the odds for favorable viewing weather in various communities along the eclipse route. The enemies of eclipse viewing are obviously clouds and the precipitation they bring and so I’ve posted numbers for cloud coverage on August 21 as well as the presence of significant precipitation starting in Corvallis, Oregon and ending in Charleston, South Carolina. There’s great data available on cloud coverage and precipitation so it’s a perfect topic for oddsmaking.

Next, we found some real world events that might be influenced by the eclipse. Social media metrics–number of Tweets and Tweets per minute–are one example. After considering a variety of metrics to measure tourism numbers it became apparent that the best data available was hotel occupancy statistics. These are released on a daily, weekly and monthly basis which gives us the opportunity to measure the impact of the eclipse on the broader lodging marketplace.

It’ll be interesting to see if the projections of ‘experts’ and ‘sources’ regarding the massive interest in viewing the eclipse turn out to be correct. My gut instinct is that while viewing interest and resulting tourism will be strong it won’t quite live up to the ‘biggest event of our lifetime’ hype that we’re hearing from some sources. At any rate, it’s definitely a unique and highly unusual event to witness–and to set betting odds on.

ECLIPSE VIEWING WEATHER PROPOSITION ODDS

ECLIPSE VIEWING WEATHER IN CORVALLIS, OREGON

CLOUD COVERAGE FOR AUGUST 21

Over 24.5%: -130
Under 24.5% +110

WILL THERE BE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION (0.04 INCHES OR MORE)?

Yes: +500
No: -750

ECLIPSE VIEWING WEATHER IN SALEM, OREGON

CLOUD COVERAGE FOR AUGUST 21

Over 37.5%: +130
Under 37.5%: -150

WILL THERE BE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION (0.04 INCHES OR MORE)?

Yes: +450
No: -600

ECLIPSE VIEWING WEATHER IN PORTLAND, OREGON

CLOUD COVERAGE FOR AUGUST 21

Over 24.5%: -180
Under 24.5%: +150

WILL THERE BE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION (0.04 INCHES OR MORE)?

Yes: +450
No: -600

ECLIPSE VIEWING WEATHER IN KETCHUM, IDAHO

CLOUD COVERAGE FOR AUGUST 21

Over 21.5%: -120
Under 21.5%: +100

WILL THERE BE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION (0.04 INCHES OR MORE)?

Yes: +450
No: -600

ECLIPSE VIEWING WEATHER IN CASPER, WYOMING

CLOUD COVERAGE FOR AUGUST 21

Over 22.5%: -180
Under 22.5%: +150

WILL THERE BE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION (0.04 INCHES OR MORE)?

Yes: +450
No: -600

ECLIPSE VIEWING WEATHER IN GRAND ISLAND, NEBRASKA

CLOUD COVERAGE FOR AUGUST 21

Over 27.5%: -130
Under 27.5%: +110

WILL THERE BE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION (0.04 INCHES OR MORE)?

Yes: +225
No: -275

ECLIPSE VIEWING WEATHER IN LINCOLN, NEBRASKA

CLOUD COVERAGE FOR AUGUST 21

Over 27.5%: -125
Under 27.5%: +105

WILL THERE BE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION (0.04 INCHES OR MORE)?

Yes: +215
No: -265

ECLIPSE VIEWING WEATHER IN LEAVENWORTH, KANSAS

CLOUD COVERAGE FOR AUGUST 21

Over 27.5%: -150
Under 27.5%: +130

WILL THERE BE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION (0.04 INCHES OR MORE)?

Yes: +210
No: -250

ECLIPSE VIEWING WEATHER IN KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI

CLOUD COVERAGE FOR AUGUST 21

Over 29.5%: -120
Under 29.5: +100

WILL THERE BE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION (0.04 INCHES OR MORE)?

Yes: +210
No: -250

ECLIPSE VIEWING WEATHER IN ST. LOUIS, MISSOURI

CLOUD COVERAGE FOR AUGUST 21

Over 29.5%: -120
Under 29.5: +100

WILL THERE BE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION (0.04 INCHES OR MORE)?

Yes: +205
No: -225

ECLIPSE VIEWING WEATHER IN CARBONDALE, ILLINOIS

CLOUD COVERAGE FOR AUGUST 21

Over 30.5%: +110
Under 30.5%: -130

WILL THERE BE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION (0.04 INCHES OR MORE)?

Yes: +205
No: -225

ECLIPSE VIEWING WEATHER IN FRANKLIN, KENTUCKY

CLOUD COVERAGE FOR AUGUST 21

Over 31.5%: +100
Under 31.5%: -120

WILL THERE BE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION (0.04 INCHES OR MORE)?

Yes: +225
No: -275

ECLIPSE VIEWING WEATHER IN PADUCAH, KENTUCKY

CLOUD COVERAGE FOR AUGUST 21

Over 31.5%: +100
Under 31.5%: -120

WILL THERE BE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION (0.04 INCHES OR MORE)?

Yes: +210
No: -250

ECLIPSE VIEWING WEATHER IN NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE

CLOUD COVERAGE FOR AUGUST 21

Over 29.5%: -150
Under 29.5%: +130

WILL THERE BE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION (0.04 INCHES OR MORE)?

Yes: +205
No: -225

ECLIPSE VIEWING WEATHER IN KNOXVILLE, TENNESSEE

CLOUD COVERAGE FOR AUGUST 21

Over 34.5%: -150
Under 34.5%: +130

WILL THERE BE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION (0.04 INCHES OR MORE)?

Yes: +180
No: -210

ECLIPSE VIEWING WEATHER IN ATHENS, GEORGIA

CLOUD COVERAGE FOR AUGUST 21

Over 37.5%: -140
Under 37.5: +120

WILL THERE BE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION (0.04 INCHES OR MORE)?

Yes: +180
No: -210

ECLIPSE VIEWING WEATHER IN BREVARD, NORTH CAROLINA

CLOUD COVERAGE FOR AUGUST 21

Over 38.5%: +100
Under 38.5%: -120

WILL THERE BE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION (0.04 INCHES OR MORE)?

Yes: +130
No: -150

ECLIPSE VIEWING WEATHER IN ASHEVILLE, NORTH CAROLINA

CLOUD COVERAGE FOR AUGUST 21

Over 39.5%: +130
Under 39.5%: -150

WILL THERE BE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION (0.04 INCHES OR MORE)?

Yes: +130
No: -150

ECLIPSE VIEWING WEATHER IN GREENVILLE, SOUTH CAROLINA

CLOUD COVERAGE FOR AUGUST 21

Over 40.5%: -120
Under 40.5%: +100

WILL THERE BE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION (0.04 INCHES OR MORE)?

Yes: +180
No: -210

ECLIPSE VIEWING WEATHER IN COLUMBIA, SOUTH CAROLINA

CLOUD COVERAGE FOR AUGUST 21

Over 41.5%: -150
Under 41.5%: +130

WILL THERE BE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION (0.04 INCHES OR MORE)?

Yes: +180
No: -210

ECLIPSE VIEWING WEATHER IN CHARLESTON, SOUTH CAROLINA

CLOUD COVERAGE FOR AUGUST 21

Over 47.5%: -150
Under 47.5%: +130

WILL THERE BE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION (0.04 INCHES OR MORE)?

Yes: +110
No: -130

A ‘wet day’ is one with at least 0.04 inches of liquid or liquid-equivalent precipitation. This is the definition we’re using for ‘significant precipitation’. For purposes of this prop the rainfall amount will be measured midnight to midnight local time on August 21 and reported by the National Weather Service. Cloud cover data refers to the percentage of the time that is defined as ‘cloudy’ or ‘mostly cloudy’ in data reported by the National Weather Service and NOAA. Data from NWS city specific weather station will be used for grading. If a city has multiple weather observation stations data from the metro area airport will be used.

MISCELLANEOUS SOLAR ECLIPSE PROPOSITION ODDS

HIGHEST TWITTER ‘TWEETS PER MINUTE’ METRIC FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD BEGINNING 12:01 AM AND 11:59 PM EDT ON AUGUST 21, 2017?

Over 325 million: -150
Under 325 million: +130

HOW MANY TWEETS WILL BE SENT ON TWITTER FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD BEGINNING 12:01 AM AND 11:59 PM EDT ON AUGUST 21, 2017?

Over 501 million: -210
Under 501 million: +180

WILL DONALD TRUMP MENTION THE ECLIPSE ON TWITTER BETWEEN 12:01 AM AND 11:59 PM EDT ON AUGUST 21, 2017?

Yes: +130
No: -150

WILL THE SOLAR ECLIPSE POSTPONE OR DELAY ANY OF THE NINE MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL GAMES SCHEDULED FOR AUGUST 21, 2017?

Yes: +1500
No: -3000

NATIONAL HOTEL OCCUPANCY PERCENTAGE FOR MONTH OF AUGUST WILL BE?

Over 74.5%: -130
Under 74.5%: +110

NATIONAL HOTEL OCCUPANCY PERCENTAGE FOR WEEK OF AUGUST 20-26 WILL BE?

Over 78.5%: +130
Under 78.5%: -150

NATIONAL HOTEL OCCUPANCY PERCENTAGE FOR AUGUST 20, 2017 WILL BE?

Over 84.5%: +105
Under 84.5% -125

NATIONAL HOTEL OCCUPANCY PERCENTAGE FOR AUGUST 20, 2017 WILL BE?

Over 82.5%: +110
Under 82.5%: -130

SOUTH ATLANTIC REGION HOTEL OCCUPANCY PERCENTAGE FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST WILL BE? (South Atlantic Region includes Maryland, Delaware, West Virginia, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida)

Over 71.5%: +130
Under 71.5% -150

SOUTH ATLANTIC REGION HOTEL AVERAGE ROOM RATE FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST WILL BE? (South Atlantic Region includes Maryland, Delaware, West Virginia, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida)

Over $124.50: -120
Under $124.50: +100

SOUTH CAROLINA STATE HOTEL OCCUPANCY PERCENTAGE FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST WILL BE?

Over 72.5%: +130
Under 72.5% -150

SOUTH CAROLINA STATE HOTEL AVERAGE ROOM RATE FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST WILL BE?

Over $129.50: -150
Under $129.50: +130

National occupancy percentages from STR and reported on the Hotel News Resource website. State and regional hotel data from the South Carolina Department of Parks, Recreation & Tourism website.

About the Author: Jim Murphy

For more than 25 years, Jim Murphy has written extensively on sports betting as well as handicapping theory and practice. Jim Murphy has been quoted in media from the Wall Street Journal to REASON Magazine. Murphy worked as a radio and podcasting host broadcasting to an international audience that depended on his expertise and advice. Murphy is an odds making consultant for sports and 'non-sport novelty bets' focused on the entertainment business, politics, technology, financial markets and more.