‘Survivor: Ghost Island’ Episode One Betting Odds

–This is the 36th season for CBS’s reality show.

–’Survivor’ was one of the early pioneers of the reality TV genre.

–’Survivor: Ghost Island’ Episode 1 airs February 28 at 8:00 PM Eastern.

You can make a good case that ‘Survivor’ trod the path on which every other reality show since has walked. It’s got to be ‘Survivor’ or ‘American Idol’ though in my view they’re ‘Apples and Oranges’. ‘American Idol’ is predicated on having some degree of talent while shows like ‘Survivor’ aren’t. When you think about it, the sobriquet ‘reality television’ has never made any sense as there’s nothing ‘real’ about any of these shows. Still, the genre soldiers on and oddly has a renewed vitality in the dying throes of the broadcast TV era. In a fragmented digital entertainment landscape few programs can ‘deliver numbers’ of any significant. Even though ‘Survivor’s popularity is a long way from Season 1 when 25 million plus would tune in every week it can still over 8 million viewers a week. That’s sufficient for the show to stay on the air for as long as Jeff Probst wants to continue to do it.

So what’s the deal with the latest incarnation ‘Ghost Island’? Executive producer Matt Van Wagenen has a somewhat ethereal explanation of the concept:

“Survivor is a game that, in its history — and we’re talking about 35 seasons in the books — that there are a lot of bad decisions that have been made over the course of the show. Some of these decisions can come back. They’ve haunted players throughout the history of the show, and there’s somewhat of a presence that these bad decisions have this season. There are things [on Ghost Island] that serve as reminders. I think for a Survivor geek, it is almost a spooky playground.”

Not sure if that makes any sense but the set design is really cool and…well…’spooky’. And as if my job as a realty TV oddsmaker wasn’t difficult enough, they’re involving some sort of ‘demonic force’ in this season. Jeff Probst (sort of) explains:

“We’ve been lucky to have some pretty amazing artists on our show from day one. What’s unique about this Tribal is it’s the first time we’ve created our own fictional world. We’ve based things on shipwrecks and other cultures, but Ghost Island doesn’t exist — except on this season of Survivor.”

Probst continues, giving props to the show’s art director Dax Pointon:

“When Dax designed this Tribal Council, it was based on the idea of Ghost Island. When it comes to life, as you’ll see on the show, it literally comes to life. That voting confessional is alive! I’m looking at eyes that are burning with fire! All of that is created in the art department. It’s mind-blowing to me. You walk into the mouth of the Survivor God! And Ghost Island itself may be cooler than Tribal — which is hard to imagine, because Tribal is pretty cool!”

Imagine a bizarre hybrid between a circa late 60’s Polynesian restaurant and an industrial dance club.

THE CONTESTANTS

To their credit, the ‘Survivor’ contestants have always had a bit more personality than most of the genre–particularly the ‘tatted up dudes’ on ‘Big Brother’. From an oddsmaking standpoint, however, the tricky thing is that the persona that contestants try to adopt in their pre-season promo videos are seldom legit. The real personalities don’t reveals themselves until the season progresses. Had I any sense I wouldn’t do odds on the show until the *second* episode since the preseason odds are a) based on fan site gossip and promo videos and b) seldom correct. To give myself some credit, I’m good about adjusting the odds quickly and by the third or fourth week of the season I’m pretty happy with them.

One interesting handicap of the show comes from none other than Jeff Probst who takes a break from counting the tens of millions of dollars he’s made with the show to give his list of ‘players to watch’. Not that I’d bet on any of Probst’s analysis. Think about it–why would he of all people want to give away any relevant information? If anything, I’d be more likely to bet *against* Probst’s analysis. After watching the Probst video you can also check out the first four minutes of the season opening episode.

My opening numbers on ‘Survivor: Ghost Island’ are below. I’ll have even more heading into Episode 2 including the ‘next player to be pixelated due to nudity’ futures market where Salt Lake City native and former Utah Jazz dancer Chelsea Townsend could be one of the favorites.

‘SURVIVOR: GHOST ISLAND’ SEASON 36 BETTING ODDS

TO WIN ‘SURVIVOR: GHOST ISLAND’

James Lin: +450
Domenick Abbate: +700
Chelsea Townsend: +700
Michael Yerger: +700
Brendan Shapiro: +900
Sebastian Noel: +900
Stephanie Gonzalez: +1500
Jenna Bowman: +1500
Bradley Kleihege: +1500
Wendell Holland: +2000
Morgan Ricke: +2000
Donathan Hurley: +2000
Stephanie Johnson: +3000
Chris Noble: +3000
Angela Perkins: +3000
Jacob Derwin: +5000
Laurel Johnson: +5000
Libby Vincek: +5000
Kellyn Bechtold: +7500
Desiree Afuye: +7500

‘SURVIVOR: GHOST ISLAND’EPISODE 1 BETTING ODDS

WHO WILL BE ELIMINATED IN EPISODE 1?

Jacob Derwin: +500
Desiree Afuye: +700
Kellyn Bechtold: +900
Angela Perkins: +900
Stephanie Johnson: +900
Chelsea Townsend: +900
Bradley Kleihege: +1500
Stephanie Gonzalez: +1500
Laurel Johnson: +1500
Michael Yerger: +1500
No One Eliminated in Episode 1: +2500
Sebastian Noel: +2500
Jenna Bowman: +2500
James Lin: +2500
Domenick Abbate: +2500
Brendan Shapiro: +5000
Wendell Holland: +5000
Morgan Ricke: +5000
Donathan Hurley: +5000
Chris Noble: +5000
Libby Vincek: +5000

WHO WILL WIN IMMUNITY IN EPISODE 1?

Malolo Tribe: -150
Naviti Tribe: +210
No One Wins Immunity in Episode 1: +750

WHO WILL WIN REWARD IN EPISODE 1?

Malolo Tribe: -150
Naviti Tribe: +210
No One Wins Immunity in Episode 1: +750

WILL A HIDDEN IDOL BE PLAYED IN EPISODE 1?

Yes: +450
No: -900

WILL ANYONE QUIT/BE REMOVED FROM ISLAND DUE TO INJURY IN EPISODE 1?

Yes: +750
No: -1500

WILL A CONTESTANT BE ‘PIXELATED’ DUE TO NUDITY IN EPISODE 1?

Yes: +210
No: -250

GENDER IDENTITY OF NEXT CONTESTANT TO BE ‘PIXELATED’ DUE TO NUDITY DURING SEASON 36?

Female: -500
Male: +250

In the previous two propositions pixelation must be due to accidental or intentional nudity and not due to obscene gestures or any other reason.

EPISODE 1 KEY DEMO (18-49) RATINGS

Over 1.75: -150
Under 1.75: +130

EPISODE 1 KEY DEMO (18-49) SHARE

Over 6.5: -150
Under 6.5: +130

EPISODE 1 TOTAL VIEWERS

Over 8 million: -130
Under 8 million: +110

EPISODE 1 NIELSEN RANKING (2/26/18 through 3/4/18)

Over 9.5: -150
Under 9.5: +130

About the Author: Jim Murphy

For more than 25 years, Jim Murphy has written extensively on sports betting as well as handicapping theory and practice. Jim Murphy has been quoted in media from the Wall Street Journal to REASON Magazine. Murphy worked as a radio and podcasting host broadcasting to an international audience that depended on his expertise and advice. Murphy is an odds making consultant for sports and 'non-sport novelty bets' focused on the entertainment business, politics, technology, financial markets and more.