‘Solo: A Star Wars Story’ Box Office Revenue Odds

–Director Ron Howard took over production after original directors Phil Lord and Chris Miller were fired

– The three Star Wars films released under Disney ownership have done $2.1 billion domestic box office.

– ‘Solo: A Star Wars Story’ opens May 25, 2018.

Another film from the insanely profitable and long running ‘Star Wars’ franchise is set to be released on May 25, 2018. This time, it’s the second entry in what is being dubbed ‘The Star Wars Anthology Series’ which features secondary storylines separate from the ‘main cannon’. As you’ve likely surmised from the name, ‘Solo: A Star Wars Story’ is about rascally Han Solo with Alden Ehrenreich given the unenviable task of filling Harrison Ford’s shoes in the role. Woody Harrelson plays a character named ‘Tobias Beckett’ who is described as ‘Han’s Mentor’. Joonas Suotamo jumps into the fur suit as Chewbacca. Donald Glover takes over for the great Billy Dee Williams as Lando Calrissian. Word is that Billy Dee met with Glover to give him some tips on playing Lando. The rest of the cast plays characters that to the best of my knowledge will be new to ‘Star Wars’ fans including Emilia Clarke, Thandie Newton, Phoebe Waller-Bridge and Paul Bettany.

The big story during the production of the film was the ‘musical chairs’ which saw original directors Phil Lord and Chris Miller fired after four months of filming due to ‘creative differences.’ This came as a bit of a surprise since they were just a few weeks away from wrapping production. The duo was replaced by Ron Howard who finally wrapped the production of ‘Solo’ on October 17, 2017. The indication is that Howard re-shot ‘pretty much the whole movie’ for ‘twice the budget’. Considering that the ‘Rogue One: A Star Wars Story’ budget was $200 million that could make this a very expensive film to make. Of course if it delivers at the box office the way ‘Rogue One’ did (over $1 billion worldwide) all is well.

WHAT TO EXPECT AT THE BOX OFFICE

There’s a bit of ambivalence among Hollywood types about the strength of ‘Solo’ at the box office. Working in its favor–it’s opening in May on Memorial Day Weekend. It’s the first Star Wars film to open in May since ‘Revenge of the Sith’ in 2005. Interesting trivia note–‘Solo’s release date will be exactly 41 years since the release of the original ‘Star Wars: A New Hope’ on May 25, 1977. There’s also concern about the film in light of the directorial turmoil during production but there were similar concerns about ‘Rogue One’ and that worked out just fine. ‘Rogue One’ reportedly went through extensive re-shoots prior to a release which generated rumors that Disney was trying to salvage it post production.

There’s additional concerns about a very competitive movie season schedule which has already seen massive blockbusters released in ‘Black Panther’ and ‘Avengers: Infinity War’, both of which have done in excess of $1 billion worldwide. ‘Deadpool 2’ is scheduled to be released on May 15 and is projected to have its own big US opening weekend in the $400 to $450 range. ‘The Incredibles 2’ will come out on June 15 and it also has high box office expectations. My view has always been that a strong box office season actually works in favor of subsequent releases as it gets people in the habit of going to the movies.

Finally, there’s a good deal of reticence in the media suggesting ‘Star Wars fatigue’. There were similar observations prior to the release of ‘Rogue One’ but it did a $155 opening weekend on its way to a $532 US gross and $1.056 billion worldwide. That suggests that even if media types are tired of ‘Star Wars’ the fanbase that buys tickets feel differently.

Here’s some proposition betting odds on the ‘Solo: A Star Wars Story’ box office revenues including opening weekend numbers:

‘SOLO: A STAR WARS STORY’ BOX OFFICE REVENUE ODDS

OPENING WEEKEND REVENUE PROPS

‘SOLO: A STAR WARS STORY’ OPENING WEEKEND DOMESTIC BOX OFFICE REVENUE?

Over $165 million: -150
Under $165 million: +130

WILL ‘SOLO: A STAR WARS STORY’ OPENING WEEKEND DOMESTIC BOX OFFICE REVENUE EXCEED THAT OF EITHER ‘BLACK PANTHER’ OR ‘AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR’?

Yes: +210
No: -250

‘Black Panther’ opening weekend: $202 million, ‘Avengers: Infinity War’ opening weekend $257 million. If ‘Solo: A Star Wars Story’ opening weekend exceeds either or both films bet will be graded a winner

WHICH WILL BE HIGHER?

‘Solo: A Star Wars Story’ opening weekend: -250
‘Deadpool 2’ opening weekend (opens 5/15): +210

WHICH WILL BE HIGHER?

‘Solo: A Star Wars Story’ opening weekend: -150
‘The Incredibles 2’ opening weekend (opens 6/15): +130

WHICH WILL BE HIGHER?

‘Solo: A Star Wars Story’ opening weekend + $45 million: -150
‘Black Panther’ opening weekend ($202 million): +130

WHICH WILL BE HIGHER?

‘Solo: A Star Wars Story’ opening weekend: -210
‘Rogue One: A Star Wars Story’ opening weekend ($155 million): +180

WHICH WILL BE HIGHER?

‘Solo: A Star Wars Story’ opening weekend: -150
‘Rogue One: A Star Wars Story’ opening weekend adjusted for inflation ($161 million): +130

US Inflation Calculator at http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/ used to adjust for inflation

WHICH WILL BE HIGHER?

‘Solo: A Star Wars Story’ opening weekend: -750
‘Star Wars: Episode I The Phantom Menace’ opening weekend adjusted for inflation ($96.25 million): +600

US Inflation Calculator at http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/ used to adjust for inflation

WHICH WILL BE HIGHER?

‘Solo: A Star Wars Story’ opening weekend: -350
‘Star Wars: Episode III Revenge of the Sith’ opening weekend adjusted for inflation ($138.55 million): +300

US Inflation Calculator at http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/ used to adjust for inflation

DOMESTIC GROSS REVENUE PROPS

‘SOLO: A STAR WARS STORY’ TOTAL DOMESTIC BOX OFFICE REVENUE?

Over $440 million: -170
Under $440 million: +150

‘SOLO: A STAR WARS STORY’ TOTAL DOMESTIC BOX OFFICE REVENUE?

Over $500 million: -135
Under $500 million: +115

WHICH LISTED FILM WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST DOMESTIC BOX OFFICE REVENUES AS OF 9/1/18?

‘Black Panther’ ($694 million as of 5/13/18): -500
‘Solo: A Star Wars Story’: +300
‘Avengers: Infinity War’: ($502 million as of 5/13/18): +450

WHICH LISTED FILM WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST DOMESTIC BOX OFFICE REVENUES AS OF 9/1/18?

‘Solo: A Star Wars Story’: -130
‘Rogue One: A Star Wars Story’: ($532 million): +110

INTERNATIONAL AND GLOBAL REVENUE PROPS

‘SOLO: A STAR WARS STORY’ TOTAL INTERNATIONAL BOX OFFICE REVENUE?

Over $475 million: -150
Under $475 million: +130

‘SOLO: A STAR WARS STORY’ TOTAL GLOBAL BOX OFFICE REVENUE?

Over $975 million: -170
Under $975 million: +150

WILL ‘SOLO: A STAR WARS STORY’ EARN $1 BILLION TOTAL GLOBAL BOX OFFICE REVENUE BY 12/31/18?

Yes: -130
No: +110

Data from Box Office Mojo will be used for grading purposes on all props

About the Author: Jim Murphy

For more than 25 years, Jim Murphy has written extensively on sports betting as well as handicapping theory and practice. Jim Murphy has been quoted in media from the Wall Street Journal to REASON Magazine. Murphy worked as a radio and podcasting host broadcasting to an international audience that depended on his expertise and advice. Murphy is an odds making consultant for sports and 'non-sport novelty bets' focused on the entertainment business, politics, technology, financial markets and more.