‘Project Runway’ Season 16 Episode 13 Betting Odds
–’Project Runway’ will feature a wide array of models this year ranging in size from 0 to 22.
–’Project Runway’ has already been renewed for two more seasons after this one.
–Episode 13 of ‘Project Runway’ Season 16 will air on November 9, 2017 at 8:00 PM Eastern on the Lifetime Network
Do I get the feeling that ‘Project Runway’ didn’t exactly pace their Season 16 schedule as well as they should have? For the second straight week nothing really happened. Since Amy Bond and Batani-Khalfani were eliminated in Week 9 (Original air date October 12) only one other contestant has been send packing–that was Michael Brambila in Week 10 (Original air date October 19). Margarita Alverez was voted off the island in Episode 11 but was the benifiecary of clemency via the ‘Tim Gunn save’. In Episode 12, no one was eliminated and based on the way shaping up Episode 13 could be another where nothing really happens.
Historically, ‘Project Runway’ has had 16 episodes a season. The finale has been split up into two parts in Episode 14 and 15 with the final show of the year being reserved for a ‘reunion’ where the contestants can ‘break kayfabe‘ and talk about the events of the season ‘out of character’. So here we are in Episode 13 and the stage is set for…not much to happen this week.
Nominally, the show had a challenge on Episode 12 but at the end all five remaining designers were invited to create a Fashion Week collection. There is a bit of semantics at play here–‘creating a collection’ doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll show said collection at Fashion Week. But why wouldn’t they? It would be silly–not to mention really mean–to make a designer go through all of the hoops and *not* show the collection.
THE POWER RATINGS
Episode 11 saw Brandon Kee further consolidate his position as Season 16 favorite and Episode 12 did nothing to change that. He’s been ridiculously consistent this year. In the 11 previous episodes he has three wins, two second place finishes, three third place finishes and no ‘low scores’. That doesn’t guarantee him a win, of course, but it helps us in making a qualitative assessment of the field in a very arbitrary competition. Taking it one step further–like any good handicapper I’ve been using ‘Project Runway’ power ratings all season. Here’s how it works:
WIN = +3
2ND = +2
HIGH = +1
IN = 0
LOW = -1
BOTTOM TWO = -2
Very simple scoring system–contestants get 3 points for winning a challenge, 2 for a second place and three for a ‘high’ finish. Being declared ‘in’ doesn’t earn any points. Having a ‘low’ score gives the contestant a -1 while a bottom two finish is a -2. Due to the format of Episode 12 no one gained or lost points. Do the math and here’s the point total for the season:
PROJECT RUNWAY POWER RATINGS THROUGH EPISODE 12
BRANDON KEE: 16
AYANA IFE: 9
KENYA FREEMAN: 8
KENTARO KAMEYAMA: 3
MARGARITA ALVAREZ: 3
That provides the basic ranking of contestants though there’s a bit more to setting the odds. No matter how you parse these numbers it clearly demonstrates that based on performance to date Brandon Kee is ‘lapping the field’. In terms of the eventual outcome it doesn’t mean much since the winner is determined based on the performance at ‘Fashion Week’. It’s like having the best record in the league entering the playoffs–that’s nice and all but it doesn’t get you a championship. Brandon’s success has also brought out the worst in the other contestants who are now questioning the ‘sameness’ of his designs. There’s definitely a fine line between having a ‘clearly defined design aesthetic’ and ‘a shortage of good ideas’. The important thing is the judges think it’s the former which is really all that matters at this point in his fashion career.
So what will happen in Episode 13? If the show follows the schedule it has in previous years not much. My guess is you’ll see footage of all five designers working on their Fashion Week collections, maybe a phony dramatic device or cliffhanger’ and not much else. I’ve set the odds for the episode to reflect this and made very little changes otherwise.
PROJECT RUNWAY SEASON 16 BETTING ODDS
TO WIN SEASON 16 OF ‘PROJECT RUNWAY’
Brandon Kee: -250
Ayana Ife: +450
Kentaro Kameyama: +600
Kenya Freeman: +800
Margarita Alverez: +800
PROJECT RUNWAY SEASON 16 EPISODE 12 PROPOSITION BETTING ODDS
TO BE ELIMINATED IN EPISODE 13 ‘PROJECT RUNWAY’ SEASON 16
No One Eliminated in Episode 13: +150
Margarita Alvarez: +300
Kentaro Kameyama: +300
Kenya Freeman: +300
Ayana Ife: +1500
Brandon Kee: +2500
TO FINISH BOTTOM TWO BUT SAFE EPISODE 13 ‘PROJECT RUNWAY’ SEASON 16
No One Bottom Two but Safe in Episode 13: +150
Kenya Freeman: +300
Margarita Alvarez: +300
Kentaro Kameyama: +300
Ayana Ife: +1500
Brandon Kee: +2500
TO WIN CHALLENGE IN EPISODE 13 ‘PROJECT RUNWAY’ SEASON 16
No One Wins Episode 13 Challenge: -150
Brandon Kee: +500
Ayana Ife: +500
Kenya Freeman: +700
Kentaro Kameyama: +700
Margarita Alverez: +1250
TO FINISH SECOND IN CHALLENGE IN EPISODE 13 ‘PROJECT RUNWAY’ SEASON 16
No One Finishes Second in Episode 13 Challenge: -150
Brandon Kee: +500
Ayana Ife: +500
Kenya Freeman: +700
Kentaro Kameyama: +700
Margarita Alverez: +1250
WILL ANY DESIGNER BE DISQUALIFIED IN EPISODE 13?
Yes: +1250
No: -2500
NUMBER OF DESIGNERS ELIMINATED IN EPISODE 13?
Over 1.5: +1250
Under 1.5: -2500
WILL TIM GUNN SAY ‘GATHER ROUND’ IN EPISODE 13?
Yes: -350
No: +300
WILL TIM GUNN SAY THE WORD ‘FABULOUS’ IN EPISODE 13?
Yes: -450
No: +375
WILL TIM GUNN SAY THAT HE’LL ‘MISS’ ANY ELIMINATED DESIGNER?
Yes: +750
No: -1500
WILL TIM GUNN USE THE EXPRESSION ‘LOT OF LOOK’ IN EPISODE 13?
Yes: +210
No: -250
WILL TIM GUNN SAY THAT HE IS ‘WORRIED’ OR ‘CONCERNED’ ABOUT A DESIGN IN EPISODE 13?
Yes: +210
No: -250
WILL ANY JUDGE ASK ‘WHERE IS SHE GOING’ OR ‘WHERE IS SHE GOING IN THIS OUTFIT’ IN EPISODE 13?
Yes: -250
No: +210
WILL ANY JUDGE SAY THAT A DESIGN ‘LOOKS EXPENSIVE’ IN EPISODE 13?
Yes: -170
No: +150
WILL ANY JUDGE SAY ‘I WOULD WEAR THAT’ IN EPISODE 13?
Yes: -250
No: +210
WILL ANY JUDGE SAY ANYTHING QUESTIONING ‘WHO SOMEONE IS AS A DESIGNER’ IN EPISODE 13?
Yes: +180
No: -210
WILL ANY CONTESTANT USE THE EXPRESSION ‘WHO I AM AS A DESIGNER’ IN EPISODE 13?
Yes: +300
No: -350
WILL ANYONE ON THE SHOW USE THE EXPRESSION ‘MAKE IT WORK’ IN EPISODE 13?
Yes: -350
No: +300
WILL ANYONE ON THE SHOW USE THE TERM ‘MALL CLOTHES’ OR OTHERWISE SUGGEST THAT AN OUTFIT LOOKS LIKE IT CAME FROM THE MALL IN EPISODE 13?
Yes: +300
No: -350
WILL ANY DESIGNER SUFFER AN INJURY IN EPISODE 13?
Yes: +600
No: -750
WILL ANY DESIGNER CRY ON CAMERA IN EPISODE 13?
Yes: +300
No: -350
WILL TIM GUND CRY ON CAMERA IN EPISODE 13?
Yes: +600
No: -750
WILL ANY JUDGE CRY ON CAMERA IN EPISODE 13?
Yes: +300
No: -350
KEY DEMO RATING FOR EPISODE 13 AS REPORTED BY ‘TV BY THE NUMBERS‘?
Over 0.45: -170
Under 0.45: +150
TOTAL VIEWERSHIP FOR EPISODE 13 AS REPORTED BY ‘TV BY THE NUMBERS‘?
Over 1.75 million: -180
Under 1.75 million: +160