‘Project Runway’ Season 16 Episode 12 Betting Odds
–’Project Runway’ will feature a wide array of models this year ranging in size from 0 to 22.
–’Project Runway’ has already been renewed for two more seasons after this one.
–Episode 12 of ‘Project Runway’ Season 16 will air on November 2, 2017 at 8:00 PM Eastern on the Lifetime Network
Margarita Alverez appeared to get KO’d by the one-two punch of karma in Episode 11 of ‘Project Runway’. Not a surprise to this observer, since I had her as a +100 favorite to get eliminated. She has been brutally inconsistent lately (more about that in a moment) but, alas, she was ‘saved by the bell’. Actually, she was saved by the ‘Tim Gunn Save’ meaning that instead of the ‘Project Runway’ contestants reaching their ‘final four’ we’re essentially in the same place we started prior to last week’s show.
Margarita isn’t off the ‘endangered’ list, however, and she and Kentaro Kameyama are my Episode 12 favorites to get eliminated. As noted above, Margarita has been inconsistent of late. Tim Gunn’s intervention notwithstanding, she had the lowest score from this week’s show. That makes her past six weeks a roller coaster affair of a third lowest, a second lowest and a lowest along with a win and two ‘third highest’ finishes. Her co-favorite to be eliminated, Kentaro Kameyama, has now dropped two straight ‘bottom two’ finishes after a win, a second, and a pair of top three finishes in the previous six weeks.
Episode 11 also saw Brandon Kee further consolidate his position as Season 16 favorite. He’s been ridiculously consistent this year. In the 11 previous episodes he has three wins, two second place finishes, three third place finishes and no ‘low scores’. That doesn’t guarantee him a win, of course, but it helps us in making a qualitative assessment of the field in a very arbitrary competition. Taking it one step further–like any good handicapper I’ve been using ‘Project Runway’ power ratings all season. Here’s how it works:
WIN = +3
2ND = +2
HIGH = +1
IN = 0
LOW = -1
BOTTOM TWO = -2
Very simple scoring system–contestants get 3 points for winning a challenge, 2 for a second place and three for a ‘high’ finish. Being declared ‘in’ doesn’t earn any points. Having a ‘low’ score gives the contestant a -1 while a bottom two finish is a -2. Do the math and here’s the point total for the season:
PROJECT RUNWAY POWER RATINGS THROUGH EPISODE 11
BRANDON KEE: 16
AYANA IFE: 9
KENYA FREEMAN: 8
KENTARO KAMEYAMA: 3
MARGARITA ALVAREZ: 3
That provides the basic ranking of contestants though there’s a bit more to setting the odds. No matter how you parse these numbers it clearly demonstrates that based on performance to date Brandon Kee is ‘lapping the field’. In terms of the eventual outcome it doesn’t mean much since the winner is determined based on the performance at ‘Fashion Week’. It’s like having the best record in the league entering the playoffs–that’s nice and all but it doesn’t get you a championship. Brandon’s success has also brought out the worst in the other contestants who are now questioning the ‘sameness’ of his designs. There’s definitely a fine line between having a ‘clearly defined design aesthetic’ and ‘a shortage of good ideas’. The important thing is the judges think it’s the former which is really all that matters at this point in his fashion career.
PROJECT RUNWAY SEASON 16 BETTING ODDS
TO WIN SEASON 16 OF ‘PROJECT RUNWAY’
Brandon Kee: -250
Ayana Ife: +450
Kentaro Kameyama: +600
Kenya Freeman: +800
Margarita Alverez: +800
PROJECT RUNWAY SEASON 16 EPISODE 12 PROPOSITION BETTING ODDS
TO BE ELIMINATED IN EPISODE 12 ‘PROJECT RUNWAY’ SEASON 16
Margarita Alvarez: +150
Kentaro Kameyama: +150
Kenya Freeman: +300
Ayana Ife: +700
Brandon Kee: +2500
No One Eliminated in Episode 12: +2500
TO FINISH BOTTOM TWO BUT SAFE EPISODE 12 ‘PROJECT RUNWAY’ SEASON 16
Kenya Freeman: +200
Margarita Alvarez: +200
Kentaro Kameyama: +200
Ayana Ife: +500
Brandon Kee: +1250
No One Bottom Two but Safe in Episode 12: +5000
TO WIN CHALLENGE IN EPISODE 12 ‘PROJECT RUNWAY’ SEASON 16
Brandon Kee: -150
Ayana Ife: +300
Kenya Freeman: +600
Kentaro Kameyama: +600
Margarita Alverez: +1000
No One Wins Episode 12 Challenge: +2500
TO FINISH SECOND IN CHALLENGE IN EPISODE 12 ‘PROJECT RUNWAY’ SEASON 16
Ayana Ife: +200
Kenya Freeman: +200
Kentaro Kameyama: +450
Brandon Kee: +450
Margarita Alverez: +450
No One Finishes Second in Episode 12 Challenge: +2500
WILL ANY DESIGNER BE DISQUALIFIED IN EPISODE 12?
Yes: +600
No: -1250
NUMBER OF DESIGNERS ELIMINATED IN EPISODE 12?
Over 1.5: +600
Under 1.5: -750
WILL TIM GUNN SAY ‘GATHER ROUND’ IN EPISODE 12?
Yes: -350
No: +300
WILL TIM GUNN SAY THE WORD ‘FABULOUS’ IN EPISODE 12?
Yes: -450
No: +375
WILL TIM GUNN SAY THAT HE’LL ‘MISS’ ANY ELIMINATED DESIGNER?
Yes: -170
No: +150
WILL TIM GUNN USE THE EXPRESSION ‘LOT OF LOOK’ IN EPISODE 12?
Yes: +180
No: -210
WILL TIM GUNN SAY THAT HE IS ‘WORRIED’ OR ‘CONCERNED’ ABOUT A DESIGN IN EPISODE 12?
Yes: +210
No: -250
WILL ANY JUDGE ASK ‘WHERE IS SHE GOING’ OR ‘WHERE IS SHE GOING IN THIS OUTFIT’ IN EPISODE 12?
Yes: -250
No: +210
WILL ANY JUDGE SAY THAT A DESIGN ‘LOOKS EXPENSIVE’ IN EPISODE 12?
Yes: -170
No: +150
WILL ANY JUDGE SAY ‘I WOULD WEAR THAT’ IN EPISODE 12?
Yes: -250
No: +210
WILL ANY JUDGE SAY ANYTHING QUESTIONING ‘WHO SOMEONE IS AS A DESIGNER’ IN EPISODE 12?
Yes: +180
No: -210
WILL ANY CONTESTANT USE THE EXPRESSION ‘WHO I AM AS A DESIGNER’ IN EPISODE 12?
Yes: +300
No: -350
WILL ANYONE ON THE SHOW USE THE EXPRESSION ‘MAKE IT WORK’ IN EPISODE 12?
Yes: -350
No: +300
WILL ANYONE ON THE SHOW USE THE TERM ‘MALL CLOTHES’ OR OTHERWISE SUGGEST THAT AN OUTFIT LOOKS LIKE IT CAME FROM THE MALL IN EPISODE 12?
Yes: -250
No: +210
WILL ANY DESIGNER SUFFER AN INJURY IN EPISODE 12?
Yes: +600
No: -750
WILL ANY DESIGNER CRY ON CAMERA IN EPISODE 12?
Yes: -250
No: +210
WILL TIM GUND CRY ON CAMERA IN EPISODE 12?
Yes: +300
No: -350
WILL ANY JUDGE CRY ON CAMERA IN EPISODE 12?
Yes: +210
No: -250
KEY DEMO RATING FOR EPISODE 12 AS REPORTED BY ‘TV BY THE NUMBERS‘?
Over 0.45: -170
Under 0.45: +150
TOTAL VIEWERSHIP FOR EPISODE 12 AS REPORTED BY ‘TV BY THE NUMBERS‘?
Over 1.75 million: -180
Under 1.75 million: +160