Political Betting–Revised Odds On All 2016 Presidential Election Proposition Bets
NOTE–THERE IS AN UPDATED VERSION OF THIS ‘FULL ODDS’ RUNDOWN HERE:
This is going to be the ‘master list’ of 2016 Presidential Election Prop Bet Odds. We’ll reprint this next week so you can follow along on election day. We’ll also update these prices as needed and add in any bets that we come up with in the interim.
Unless you’ve been living under a rock you’ve no doubt heard, read or been told that the dynamic of the 2016 Presidential race has changed dramatically over the past week. For that reason, this is a good time to go back through all of our 2016 Election proposition bet odds and update the numbers as necessary. I’d estimate that the numbers have changed on over 90% of this list.
Three bets have already been graded–they’re bets we posted on the results of post debate media polling. After the election we’ll post a list of all props and how they turned out.
This list is divided into general category areas starting with the most significant odds–the outright result of the 2016 Presidential Election. For what it’s worth, this hasn’t changed since our last update (Saturday night). I’ll update this during the day tomorrow and likely add a few more prop bets. Also within the next 24 hours I’ll post the full rundown of Presidential betting odds in every US state.
The 2016 Presidential Election is on Tuesday, November 8. And don’t forget that your VOTE BET matters….
Shout out to REALCLEARPOLITICS.COM which is just an amazing resource of polling data and information. It’s been invaluable in formulating all of these proposition bet odds.
ALL ODDS UPDATED AT 12:01 EASTERN ON 11/01/16
NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES 10/31/16:
Hillary Clinton:-300
Donald Trump: +225
Other: +3000
2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION SPECIALS
Winning popular vote share margin:
Clinton 20%+: +3300
Clinton 15-20%: +2000
Clinton 10-15%: +1200
Clinton 5-10%: +275
Clinton 0-5%: +200
Trump 0-5%: +350
Trump 5-10%: +1000
Trump 10-15%: +1600
Trump 15-20%: +2000
Trump 20%+: +3300
Winning electoral college margin:
Clinton 410+: +800
Clinton 390-409: +1000
Clinton 370-389: +800
Clinton 350-369: +400
Clinton 330-349: +300
Clinton 310-329: +800
Clinton 290-309: +1200
Clinton 270-289: +1400
Tie 269-269: +10000
Trump 270-289: +1400
Trump 290-309: +1600
Trump 310-329: +2000
Trump 330-349: +3300
Trump 350-369: +5000
Trump 370-389: +6600
Trump 390-409: +10000
Trump 410+: +5000
Presidential Election Outcome Props:
Clinton to win popular vote by over 10%: +750
Trump to win popular vote by over 10%: +1500
Popular vote winner loses in Electoral College: +700
Election winner anyone other than Trump or Clinton: +2500
Obama still to be sitting President on Feb 1 2017: +2500
Will Donald Trump accept the election result?
Yes: -450
No: +375
Donald Trump to be the Republican candidate for President on 11/8/16
Yes: -2100
No: +1400
Hillary Clinton to be the Democratic candidate for President on 11/8/16
Yes: -1350
No: +850
Mike Pence to be the Republican candidate for Vice-President on 11/8/16
Yes: -2750
No: +2000
Electoral College Vote Handicap Betting
Hillary Clinton -24.5 Electoral Votes: -350
Donald Trump +24.5 Electoral Votes: +275
Electoral College Vote Handicap Betting
Hillary Clinton -49.5 Electoral Votes: -300
Donald Trump +49.5 Electoral Votes: +225
Electoral College Vote Handicap Betting
Hillary Clinton -74.5 Electoral Votes: -225
Donald Trump +74.5 Electoral Votes: +150
Electoral College Vote Handicap Betting
Hillary Clinton -99.5 Electoral Votes: -110
Donald Trump +99.5 Electoral Votes: -110
Will Any Person Other Than Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump win a state?
Yes: +100
No: -120
Popular vote winner to win the election
Yes: -490
No: +330
Hillary Clinton total states won
21 States or less: +580
22-23 States: +800
24-25 States: +350
26-27 States: +275
28-29 States: +325
30 States or more: +800
Will the US Presidential Election be held on November 8, 2016?
Yes: -2500
No: +1750
Which party will win the Presidency?
Democrats: -400
Republicans: +275
Other: +2500
Gender of the next President of the United States?
Female: -300
Male: +225
Who will be elected Vice President of the United States?
Tim Kaine: -300
Mike Pence: +225
Who will win the popular vote for President of the United States?
Hillary Clinton: -300
Donald Trump: +225
Will Donald Trump win a state?
Yes: -15000
No: +7500
Next President to be anyone other than Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump?
Yes: +2250
No: -3000
Will Donald Trump drop out of the election before October 31, 2016?
Yes: +5000
No: -7500
Will Mike Pence drop out of the election before October 31, 2016?
Yes: +4500
No: -7000
Will Hillary Clinton drop out of the election before October 31, 2016?
Yes: +5500
No: -8000
Which party will control the Senate after the voting of 11/8/16?
Democratic Party: -175
Republican Party: +250
Will any Presidential candidate attract over 50% of the popular vote?
Yes: +175
No: -250
Hillary Clinton electoral vote count will be:
Over 359.5: +220
Under 359.5: -300
Donald Trump electoral vote count will be:
Over 359.5: +1250
Under 359.5: -2500
Hillary Clinton electoral vote count will be:
Over 370.5: +1500
Under 370.5: -3000
Donald Trump electoral vote count will be:
Over 370.5: +1250
Under 370.5: -2500
Democrats to control House of Representatives, Senate and White House?
Yes: +400
No: -600
Republicans to control House of Representatives, Senate and White House?
Yes: +450
No: -700
Will Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton concede the Presidential election by 12:01 AM on Wednesday, November 9?
Yes: -120
No: +100
Will Kellyanne Conway be Donald Trump’s campaign manager on November 7, 2016?
Yes: -1500
No: +950
Will Jennifer Palmieri be Hillary Clinton’s communications director on November 7, 2016?
Yes: -1400
No: +900
How many women will be in the President of the United States’ cabinet on March 31, 2017?
Over 7.5: +100
Under 7.5: -120
How many Federal deportations will there be in FY 2016?
Over 250,000: -450
Under 250,000: +300
Will Huma Abedin be Clinton Campaign Vice Chair on 11/7/16?
Yes: -450
No: +325
MEDIA POLLING PERCENTAGE SPECIALS
Hillary Clinton lead in Real Clear Politics average ‘two way’ poll against Donald Trump at 12:01 AM on Thursday, November 3:
Over 3%: -115
Under 3% or Trump leads: -105 WIN
Hillary Clinton lead in Real Clear Politics average ‘four way’ poll against Donald Trump, Gary Johnson and Jill Stein at 12:01 AM on Thursday, November 3:
Over 3%: -120
Under 3% or Trump leads: +100 WIN
Who will be shown as Florida leader in Real Clear Politics average ‘two way’ poll between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump at 12:01 AM on Thursday, November 3:
Hillary Clinton: -105
Donald Trump: -115 WIN
Who will be shown as Florida leader in Real Clear Politics ‘four way’ poll between Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Gary Johnson and Jill Stein at 12:01 AM on Thursday, November 3:
Hillary Clinton: -105
Donald Trump: -115 WIN
Hillary Clinton’s Poll Average at RealClearPolitics at 11:59 PM EDT on 10/3/16 will be:
OVER 43.1 -110 WIN
UNDER 43.1 -110
Donald Trump’s Poll Average at RealClearPolitics at 11:59 PM EDT on 10/3/16 will be:
OVER 41.5 -110
UNDER 41.5 -110 WIN
Will Donald Trump be shown as the leader in the Bloomberg Presidential Poll at 11:59 PM EDT on 10/3/16
YES -175 NO ACTION
NO +150 TIE
PRESIDENTIAL ENDORSEMENT SPECIALS
Will Paul Ryan withdraw Trump endorsement?
Yes: +500
No: -750
Will Ted Cruz withdraw Trump endorsement?
Yes: +700
No: -1000
Will Jeb Bush endorse Trump before Election Day?
Yes: +1500
No: -1750
Will John Kasich endorse Trump before Election Day?
Yes: +900
No: -1500
VOTER TURNOUT SPECIALS
2016 Presidential Election Voter Turnout
66% or more: +750
62%–65.99%: +550
58%–61.99%: +275
54%–57.99%: +220
50%–53.99%: +350
49.99% or less: +450
2016 Presidential Election Voter Turnout
Over 51.7%: -110
Under 51.7%: -110
INDIVIDUAL STATE VOTING SPECIALS
Who will win the Presidential popular vote in the state of Florida?
Donald Trump: +130
Hillary Clinton: -150
Who will win the Presidential popular vote in the state of Utah?
Evan McMullin: +100
Donald Trump: -120
Hillary Clinton: +1100
Other: +10000
Will Nevada voters approve the marijuana legalization ballot measure? (Ballot Question #2)
Yes: -120
No: +100
Who will win the Nevada Senate race?
Joe Heck(Republican): +105
Catherine Cortez Masto(Democrat): -115
Who will win the popular vote for President in Nevada?
Hillary Clinton: -225
Donald Trump: +175
Will California voters approve the marijuana legalization ballot measure? (Proposition 64)
Yes: -250
No: +175
Will California voters approve the condoms in adult films ballot measure? (Proposition 60)
Yes: -110
No: -110
Who will win the popular vote for President in California?
Hillary Clinton: -6600
Donald Trump: +2500
Who will win the vote for California’s open Senate seat vacated by Barbara Boxer?
Kamala Harris: -1950
Loretta Sanchez: +1700
Who will win the vote for California’s 49th Congressional District seat?
Darrell Issa(Republican): -120
Doug Applegate(Democrat): +100
Who will win the vote for Governor of North Carolina?
Pat McCrory(Republican): +175
Roy Cooper(Democrat): -250
Who will win the popular vote for President in North Carolina?
Hillary Clinton: -350
Donald Trump: +250
Will Massachusetts voters approve the marijuana legalization ballot measure? (Ballot Question #4)
Yes: -600
No: +450
Will Massachusetts voters approve the additional ‘slots only’ gambling ballot measure? (Ballot Question #1)
Yes: +150
No: -210
Will Massachusetts voters approve the charter school expansion ballot measure? (Ballot Question #2)
Yes: +120
No: -150
Will Massachusetts voters approve the small cage ban ballot measure? (Ballot Question #3)
Yes: -250
No: +210
Who will win the popular vote for President in Massachusetts?
Hillary Clinton: -30000
Donald Trump: +17500
Will Maine voters approve the marijuana legalization ballot measure? (Ballot Question #1)
Yes: -300
No: +250
Who will win the popular vote for President in Maine?
Hillary Clinton: -900
Donald Trump: +500
Will Arkansas voters approve the Arkansas Medical Cannabis Act? (Ballot Question #7)
Yes: +225
No: -300
Who will win the popular vote for President in Arkansas?
Hillary Clinton: +2500
Donald Trump: -5000
Gary Johnson popular vote in New Mexico?
Over 9.9%: -150
Under 9.9% +130
Who will win the Illinois Senate race?
Mark Kirk (R): +1500
Tammy Duckworth (D): -2150
Who will win the Indiana Senate race?
Evan Bayh (D): -110
Todd Young (R): -110
Who will win the Utah Senate race?
Misty Snow (D): +525
Mike Lee (R): -650