Political Betting–2016 Presidential Election Odds Update
With all three debates in the books and just over two weeks left until the election this should be ‘crunch time’ for both Presidential campaigns. That’s not the case, however, and things have actually been very quiet over the past week. As we mentioned in our previous 2016 Presidential election odds update the ‘to win’ betting line has essentially remained unchanged since after the second debate. While the situation hasn’t changed much it does look like Donald Trump has seen an incremental increase in his support (or perhaps Hillary Clinton has seen an incremental decrease in her support). In our last update, Clinton had a +6.4% lead in a head to head matchup with Trump (not including Green Party candidate Jill Stein or Libertarian Gary Johnson). As of this writing, her lead has diminished slightly to +6.1%. At the time of our previous update Clinton led every poll on the RealClearPoltics.com poll average with the exception of one–that one was a tie. It’s changed slightly and now there are two polls calling the race a tie.
The four way race is more favorable to Trump. In our previous update, Clinton had a lead of over 6 percentage points. At the time of this writing it’s down to +5.3% and Trump is shown as the leader in two polls. In the four way race Clinton is shown at 44.7%, Trump at 39.4%, Gary Johnson at 6.5% and Jill Stein at 2.6%. There some additional data that shows that Trump may have closed the gap at least marginally. In our previous update, we quoted 85% as the likelihood of a Clinton victory. The same sources that produced that percentage is now showing between 80% and 82%. To keep this in perspective, this is still a significant advantage but after a stretch with little to no movement it is something.
NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES 10/22/16:
Hillary Clinton:-600
Donald Trump: +450
Other: +4500
The only change in this proposition bet is in the ‘other’ category. While my previous price of +7500 might more accurately reflect the ‘true odds’ of that occurance the revised number is more in line with what a sportsbook would offer on this prop.
There is one scenario I’ve been considering that could throw the result into at least some degree of doubt. It might be the case that the various polling sources are not accurately modeling Donald Trump’s support base. If this were to be true it could serve to underestimate his support. Whether this ‘unrepresented support’ would be enough to make Trump competitive is a different question. In my estimation, this could have at least some validity. We’ve already got a clear empirical example of how difficult it is to define Trump’s support base and their agenda. The Republican Party and their candidates couldn’t do it–if they could, Jeb Bush would be the Republican Candidate now. It’s easy to generalize about the nature of Trump’s supporters and they’re often represented in caricature. They’re often defined by their more extreme positions, particularly their anti-immigration stance. None of this leads to polling accuracy. There’s also the possibility that Trump’s supporters are more enthusiastic than Clinton’s supporters. That’s certainly an anecdotal opinion on my part but were this the case this would also serve to negate some of Clinton’s advantage.
We’ll take a look at some individual state races and ballot propositions early next week. For now, here’s a few additional Presidential election props:
US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION SPECIALS
Many of the following prop bets are obviously a different way to bet ‘Who will win’. Many sportsbooks have had props of this type up throughout the election cycle and they haven’t always been the ‘foregone conclusion’ they are now. There are some extreme scenarios that could concern these props–if Hillary Clinton would be replaced a Democrat could win cashing the ‘Which party?’ prop but not the others. There could also be a Vice Presidential candidate change though it’s doubtful that this will happen. There’s also a ‘popular vote’ prop since a candidate could win that and lose the electoral college.
Which party will win the Presidency?
Democrats: -600
Republicans: +450
Other: +4500
Gender of the next President of the United States?
Female: -600
Male: +450
Who will be elected Vice President of the United States?
Tim Kaine: -600
Mike Pence: +450
Who will win the popular vote for President of the United States?
Hillary Clinton: -700
Donald Trump: +500
Will Donald Trump win a state?
Yes: -7500
No: +5500
Next President to be anyone other than Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump?
Yes: +4500
No: -7500
Will Donald Trump drop out of the election before October 31, 2016?
Yes: +5000
No: -7500
Will Mike Pence drop out of the election before October 31, 2016?
Yes: +4500
No: -7000
Will Hillary Clinton drop out of the election before October 31, 2016?
Yes: +5500
No: -8000
Will Kellyanne Conway be Donald Trump’s campaign manager on November 7, 2016?
Yes: -1500
No: +950
Will Jennifer Palmieri be Hillary Clinton’s communications director on November 7, 2016?
Yes: -1400
No: +900
How many women will be in the President of the United States’ cabinet on March 31, 2017?
Over 7.5: +100
Under 7.5: -120
How many Federal deportations will there be in FY 2016?
Over 250,000: -450
Under 250,000: +300