Political Betting–2016 Presidential Election Odds After Third Debate
The third Presidential debate between Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and Republican nominee Donald Trumps is in the books and mercifully there are no further scheduled. As we’ve done after each of the debates we’ll take a look at where things stand and come up with some prop bets to make what would otherwise be an interminable remainder of the campaign at least somewhat entertaining.
We’ll start by looking at the current odds to win The White House:
Next President of the United States 10/20/16:
Hillary Clinton:-600
Donald Trump: +450
Other: +7500
What’s interesting is that these prices haven’t changed since 10/10/16. In some ways, that strikes me as somewhat strange. There’s a growing preponderance of evidence that Hillary Clinton will be the next President of the United States. The polling data obviously varies from one source to another due to their divergent methodologies but according to the information at RealClearPolitics there’s none of the major media outlets pointing to a Trump victory. The LA Times/USC tracking poll has been one of the most favorable for Trump. During the Democratic National Convention they had him with a lead as high as 7%. They’re still the poll most favorable to Trump but now they’re showing the race as a ‘tie’. To be completely accurate they’ve got Trump with a 0.4% advantage but since that’s within their ‘margin of error’ it’s technically a ‘tie’.
Every other poll on the RealClearPolitics average has Clinton with a lead ranging from 2% to 10%. This factors out to an average to an advantage of 6.4% in a head to head matchup with Trump. Trump fares slightly better in a four candidate race with Green Party representative Jill Stein and Libertarian Gary Johnson added. In this scenario two media outlets show Trump with a small lead (Rasmussen Reports 3%, IBD/TIPP Tracking 1%). Overall it’s still roughly the same story with the average showing a Clinton lead of 6%. With just over three weeks left until the election it’s going to be hard for Trump to find a way to ‘move the needle’. Both candidates are so generally unlikable they’ve been running campaigns that are predicated on vilifying their opponent in the hopes that the public will cast a ‘vote against the other guy’. It’ll likely be more of the same until the election but it’s unclear if there’s any efficacy left in this strategy.
So why hasn’t there been any significant line movement in over two weeks? One European sportsbook (Paddy Power) has actually gone ahead and paid out on the bet declaring Clinton the winner. In all fairness, this is a publicity gimmick that they use often with Premier League soccer. It’s doubtful that the US Election officials will declare the race over based on the actions of a European sports book but it’s a clear sign of confidence that Clinton will win. Thinking from a strictly anecdotal standpoint it seems that if I’m the average guy on the street and I can bet on a proposition that Paddy Power has already paid on that it would draw some money to Clinton. That hasn’t happened.
From a theoretical standpoint the -600 price is likely correct. Most political pundits who do this type of quantification give Clinton an 85% chance to win the Presidency. Implied probability at -600 is just over 85% so technically speaking the price is right where it should be. That’s still not a very satisfying answer. One thing interesting about non-sports prop betting is that in many events ‘public opinion’ can reflect and in some cases determine reality. In sports, that’s not the case and more often than not serious bettors look to play *against* public opinion. What they think has no influence on a sporting event but since they’re the ones that get out and vote the ‘public’ opinion is ultimately what determines this outcome.
US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION SPECIALS AFTER THIRD DEBATE
Will Donald Trump accept the election result?
Yes: -450
No: +375
Donald Trump to be the Republican candidate for President on 11/8/16
Yes: -750
No: +550
Hillary Clinton to be the Democratic candidate for President on 11/8/16
Yes: -1750
No: +1200
Mike Pence to be the Republican candidate for Vice-President on 11/8/16
Yes: -2750
No: +2000
Electoral College Vote Handicap Betting
Hillary Clinton -24.5 Electoral Votes: -450
Donald Trump +24.5 Electoral Votes: +375
Electoral College Vote Handicap Betting
Hillary Clinton -49.5 Electoral Votes: -350
Donald Trump +49.5 Electoral Votes: +275
Electoral College Vote Handicap Betting
Hillary Clinton -74.5 Electoral Votes: -275
Donald Trump +74.5 Electoral Votes: +200
Electoral College Vote Handicap Betting
Hillary Clinton -99.5 Electoral Votes: -200
Donald Trump +99.5 Electoral Votes: +170
Will Any Person Other Than Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump win a state?
Yes: +110
No: -130
Popular vote winner to win the election
Yes: +1200
No: -1750
Hillary Clinton total states won
21 States or less: +1750
22-23 States: +1500
24-25 States: +300
26-27 States: +200
28-29 States: +450
30 States or more: +1250
Will the US Presidential Election be held on November 8, 2016?
Yes: -2500
No: +1750
Back later this week with more election props including state specific betting odds on Presidential voting, Senate races, Ballot Propositions and more!