Pivotal Game 5 Ahead for Penguins, Predators
After the Pittsburgh Penguins started this year’s Stanley Cup Finals with a 2-0 series lead, there were few people who envisioned the Nashville Predators having much of any chance of emerging victorious. Then Games 3 and 4 happened, and before we knew it the series was tied at 2 apiece. Tonight will bring about a pivotal Game 5 that is likely to shift the tide of the Finals in one way or another.
Penguins to Sure Up Their Defense
When the Predators entered their home arena this past Monday, they were favored to win, but only slightly. The team from Tennessee was listed on the moneyline at -145 by most bookmakers, making them very slight favorites. Seeing from the odds alone, it was clear that there were few people who were overly confident that they would emerge victorious. With that being said, the game ended up being more of a one-sided affair than anything else. In fact, the past two games, both of which were losses for the Penguins, ended up being one-sided affairs.
For many, what these first 4 games have boiled down to is the ability of the goalies. Through the first two games, Pekka Rinne gave up goal after goal and flat-out did not look like himself. Then, as Bleacher Report points out, “The tables [have] turned. Matt Murray is now being analyzed under a microscope, while Rinne has come away from this two-game stretch as Nashville’s savior.” Murray has given up 9 goals in 2 games, and is sporting a .864 save percentage over Games 3 and 4. For bettors, the 5 goal over/under (-134/+112) has been a tough call to make. The total goals have ended around 5 in 3 of the 4 games so far, with only Game 1 handily eclipsing the 5 goal threshold.
As we look ahead to Game 5, the talk of the town is whether or not Matt Murray should remain in net, or if the Penguins should make a late switch and position the veteran, Marc-Andre Fleury, in between the posts. As it stands, it seems like Murray is going to continue laying claim to the goalkeeping duties, and it is unclear whether this is a good things or not.
What to Look Out For in Game 5
Here are a few of the talking points everyone is discussing as we head into Game 5.
Matt Murray’s Ability
As we briefly touched upon above, there are lingering concerns about whether Murray can handle the pressure that this game is going to present. He is playing in front of his home crowd, which will help, but he will be coming off perhaps the worst 2-game stretch of his career. Right now, Bovada has the over/under listed at 5.5 (+110/-130). The under in this situation seems like the right call. When it comes down to it, both Murray and Rinne are top-level goalkeepers who have been alternating poor performances. If they can level themselves, signs are pointing to tonight being a more low-scoring affair.
Home Ice Advantage
It seems as though hockey, perhaps more than any other sport, sees home ice advantage play into the end result of a game more often than in any other sport. PPG Paints Arena, where Pittsburgh calls home, is a particularly tough place for opposing teams. As Pittsburgh center Evgeni Malkin put it, “It’s a good situation for us. We’re 2-2. It’s even. We’re playing against a good team. We play here, at home. It’s a good chance to again lead the series.” Perhaps this is part of the reason why the Penguins are at -150 on the moneyline, and are -1.5 (+195) favorites. For this, I think both the moneyline wager and the spread wager on the Penguins are intelligent ones to entertain. So far, none of the 4 matches have been decided by less than 2 goals, so if Pittsburgh—at home—is going to emerge victorious, our thinking is that it will be a 2, 3, or even 4 goal margin of victory.
We are not counting out the possibility of a low-scoring game, (see: our Under pick above—Under 5.5 -130) so there is some value in picking the Predators +1.5 (-235). Of course, if you do not believe in momentum and are thinking that home ice advantage will weigh on the result most, a Predators spread bet may not be the best decision.
Penguins Lineup Alteration
On Wednesday, it was announced that youngster Conor Sheary will be joining all-star Sidney Crosby and playoff goals leader, and rookie, Jake Guentzel on the first line. Seeing as there is a lot of firepower from just these 3 players alone, Rinne is going to need to have a top-notch match to preserve any under 5.5 (-130) wager. With everything to play for, and what amounts to a best of 3 series ahead, Game 5 is sure to be an interesting engagement. Though there is no way to say this for certain, you have to think that the winner of this game will have full momentum heading into what can be a series-deciding Game 6.