Orioles to Turn Things Around in Series Finale
Cleveland has so far been enjoying their trip to Baltimore, as they have taken 2 of games so far. Last night, the AL Central-leading Indians (-150) relied on 10 strikeouts from Carlos Carrasco and some offense later in the game to get by the Baltimore Orioles (+1.5 +105) by a final score of 5-1. A 45-minute rain delay did not seem to hamper the Indians at all, and that much was apparent right from the start.
What happened in Baltimore last night does well to explain the stark contrast between the Orioles and the Indians. Both teams are competent in just about all aspects of the game, but the Orioles pitching staff has struggled consistently. Last night, they gave up 11 hits in front of their home crowd, and in each of their last 3 games they have given up at least 5 runs.
So long as your starting pitchers and bullpen continue to bleed runs like the Orioles’ has been, there are going to be few chances for your team to succeed. On Thursday night, the Indians will close out the series and will be hoping to take 3 of 4. In addition, they will be looking to extend their small lead at the top of the AL Central.
It All Comes Down to Pitching
As we just briefly touched upon, the major difference between the Indians (-130) and the Orioles (+110) is their respective pitching. While the Ohio team has both solid starting and relief pitchers, the Orioles do not really have either. Starting on the mound for the visiting Indians is Mike Clevinger (2-3 3.89 ERA) while Wade Miley (3-4 4.29 ERA) will make the start for the Orioles.
Despite us just touting Cleveland’s pitching staff as being perhaps the best in the AL Central, Clevinger might be the one exception to that. Clevinger has been less than stellar this year and has been especially inconsistent in his most recent few starts. Last Saturday, Clevinger made the start at Minnesota and was only able to last 4 innings. In his previous 2 starts, both of which were losses, Clevinger gave up 5 and 3 runs respectively. This will only be the second time he faces the Orioles, however his first start saw him last only 4 innings en route to giving up a slew of runs.
Wade Miley, on the other hand, hasn’t performed too poorly thus far this season. His biggest problem is the fact that he consistently hits pitch counts of 100+. Right now, in 14 starts, Miley is averaging more than 95 pitches per outing. Out of his last 10 starts, Miley has hit the 100 mark on 7 occasions. This is something that typically sees him give up a lot of hits and, consequently, a lot of runs. To put this in perspective, Miley won his last outing against the Cardinals, however he gave up 5 earned runs in the process and needed the Orioles offense to pump out 15 runs to earn that decision. Without help from the offensive side, Miley is up the creek without a paddle.
We could go on and on about the Indians’ (-130) andhttps://www.sportsbettingexperts.com/over-under-bets/ Orioles’ offenses, but the fact of the matter is that they are fairly evenly matched. With two pitchers who like to give up runs taking the mound tonight for both teams, both offenses will be given a chance to shine.
Prediction and Betting Picks
Right off the bat, I really like the Orioles’ moneyline (+110) in this one. Clevinger likes to give up hits and runs, and I think the Orioles offense is bound to get going after scoring just 1 run last night. The +110 odds being offered by Bovada present you with great value. On top of that, the Orioles will be at home, which almost always works in their favor as Camden Yards is not the easiest of ballparks to travel to.
The over/under for this game is listed at 10.5 (-105/-125), and I think the under (-125) is the appropriate choice for this one. Though the first 2 games of this series saw the run total eclipse 10, I think the Indians are going to have a tougher time than they might be expecting against Miley. Miley is in need of a solid outing, and is more than capable of having one.
The Orioles’ team over/under is something that I am looking at quite closely. It is currently listed at 4.5 (-120/-110) and I think this will, in all likelihood, go over. Once again, I am going against the series trend—which saw the Orioles score more than 4 runs only once thus far—in this one primarily due to the fact that the Indians’ weakest pitcher will be taking the mound. As we have already mentioned, the Orioles are a strong offensive unit. The only caveat to this is that you truly never know what Orioles team is going to take the field. Hopefully, the Orioles team with a stronger offense will be out in full force on Thursday.