NHL Hockey Betting: Stanley Cup Playoffs for May 15, 2016
The Stanley Cup playoffs return on Sunday as the St. Louis Blues host the San Jose Sharks in Game One of the Western Conference Finals:
EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS:
The Tampa Bay Lightning got the Eastern Conference Finals started right on Friday night as they beat the Pittsburgh Penguins 3-1. The victory may or may not have been costly as starting goalie Ben Bishop had to be stretchered off the ice in the first period with a leg injury. The Lightning have dealt with a mounting number of injuries but have played well despite the challenges.
The word now on Bishop’s injury is that it could have been worse. He was X-rayed on Friday night and they came back negative so no apparent structural damage. He’s now listed as ‘day to day’ though he’s unlikely to start in Game Two of the series on Monday night. That means Andrei Vasilevskiy will get the start and the Bolts’ hope he’ll have another solid outing like his relief work in Game One. Vasilevskiey made 25 saves allowing just one goal.
We’ll talk about this at greater length tomorrow but the pricing on this matchup is absurd. It was absurd before the Bishop injury and it’s still absurd. Of course, there’s so many hysterical sports media reactions that the Lightning are done without Bishop. Apparently they didn’t watch the game last night since TAMPA BAY WON. Don’t fall for the trap of blindly betting Pittsburgh just because of the Lightning goalie injury. If you liked Pittsburgh before the injury you’re likely more confident about your chances now. That’s understandable. I liked Tampa Bay for Game One and the series and I still like them for the series. And they’re still the value side in Game Two. Just no way to justify the Penguins as -200 favorites over the defending Eastern Conference Champions.
SAN JOSE SHARKS AT ST. LOUIS BLUES:
More head scratching pricing here. In my view, the pricing on the two conference finals would make more sense if they were swapped. I could buy the Blues as a strong favorite over the Sharks. I wouldn’t necessarily agree with it, but I’d understand the rationale. Instead, St. Louis is a -135 favorite for Game One and for the series.
Apparently, the linesmakers didn’t watch the Sharks’ series with Nashville as closely as I did. The Predators dominated San Jose for long stretches–particularly on home ice. The Sharks did what they had to do to win the series and advance but they’re now in against a team that plays a very similar style as the Predators–only they do it better. They’ve got the ‘go to’ scorer that Nashville lacks in Vladamir Tarasenko. They’ve got more consistent goaltending and a more cohesive team unit.
It’s amazing how quick the mainstream media is to forget a team’s liabilities. Credit to San Jose for not having another early playoff flameout this year. For one thing, they got a very favorable draw to this point facing a slumping Los Angeles team in the first round and the erratic Predators in the second. St. Louis didn’t get so lucky–they faced the defending Stanley Cup champion Chicago Blackhawks and the Western Conference regular season champion Dallas Stars. Very tough challenges but the Blues gutted them out. That is much more impressive in my view.
San Jose has more potent offensive weapons up front. But by that metric, the Edmonton Oilers should be playing for the Western Conference championship. The Blues might not have the same deep roster of high level snipers but they’ve got Tarasenko and a team that has shown a knack for getting goals when they need them from a variety of ‘unsung heroes’. Martin Jones is a good goalie to be sure but not as good as Brian Elliott. Elliott has played one bad period in the postseason. Both teams have capable backups but I’ll take St. Louis’ Jake Allen over San Jose’s refugee from the Maple Leafs James Reimer. How can you not love the Sharks’ Brent Burns but the Blues are the better defensive team.
Another problematic issue with San Jose is their weird home/road dichotomy. During the regular season the Sharks had the best road record in the NHL but a worse home record than Central Division basement dweller Winnipeg and last place Pacific Division/Western Conference team Edmonton. If they were monsters on the road throughout the playoffs it would be different but after winning 3 games on the road in the series against Los Angeles they lost every game at Nashville in the conference semifinals. The Blues had excellent records on the road and at home.
The Blues are just a deeper, more consistent and more disciplined team. They’ll win Game One and win this series in five or six games.
BET ST. LOUIS BLUES -135 OVER SAN JOSE SHARKS (GAME ONE)
BET ST. LOUIS BLUES -135 OVER SAN JOSE SHARKS (SERIES)