NFL Football Betting: Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots

Thursday night football this week offers an AFC East divisional battle between the Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots. The Patriots are 6-0 and looking very capable of defending their Super Bowl title. The Dolphins appear to be heading in the right direction after their recent coaching change. Joe Philbin was sent packing following Miami’s loss to the New York Jets in London on October 4. He was replaced by interim coach Dan Campbell and its been so far so good with a 2-0 record to improve the Dolphins’ overall record to 3-3.

Campbell’s Dolphins have been a nice story so far. The ‘glass half full’ types see Campbell as a coach that has brought an important dimension of fun back to a franchise that had lost their swagger. Campbell gets high marks from players for such strange exercises as Frisbee golf contests during practice. The ‘glass half empty’ types–such as myself–see a coach that is unprepared for the challenges of running a NFL football team so he does the best he can with gimmicks best left in high school and college. The Dolphins have shown some needed intensity on defense but they also have played very unfocused, aggressive and reckless football piling up penalties and trying to intimidate lesser teams like Tennessee and Houston.

It goes without saying that the Dolphins will need more than gimmicks and cheap shots to intimidate Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots. Belichick has seen it all and doesn’t scare easily. Quarterback Tom Brady has as well and his performance this year after the insipid ‘DeflateGate’ controversy has underscored the fact that one of the best strategies to deal with him is to not make him mad. And unlike the Patriots’ previous two foes, Belichick has some tape to work with and won’t be caught by surprise with Miami’s revamped tactics. It’s a huge step up in class for the Dolphins and Campbell who will be treated like the second coming of Don Shula should he pull off the upset at Gillette Stadium.

We sure don’t see that happening. The Patriots have been a wrecking crew this year at 6-0 SU/3-1-2 against the spread. Their spread record at home is a little problematic (1-0-2) as it suggests a team that is being overvalued at home. That may be the case, but that doesn’t mean we have any interest in Miami here. The Patriots are on a 17-7 SU run against Miami at home and have won and covered five straight in the series at Gillette Stadium. They’ve won the last three home games versus Miami by an average of more than 3 touchdowns (22 PPG). With the Patriots dropping 30+ points per game on a weekly basis it isn’t apparent why Miami’s defense will be able to do what no one else has been able do. Given the huge disparity in class, the price on this game is reasonable and likely based on Miami’s status as ‘flavor of the week’. Their stock should drop precipitously after they catch a beating here.

BET NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -8 OVER MIAMI DOLPHINS

About the Author: Jim Murphy

For more than 25 years, Jim Murphy has written extensively on sports betting as well as handicapping theory and practice. Jim Murphy has been quoted in media from the Wall Street Journal to REASON Magazine. Murphy worked as a radio and podcasting host broadcasting to an international audience that depended on his expertise and advice. Murphy is an odds making consultant for sports and 'non-sport novelty bets' focused on the entertainment business, politics, technology, financial markets and more.