NCAA Basketball Tournament Best Bets For March 18, 2016

2-1-1 on our opening day best bets. Let’s try to stay ‘in the black’ on Friday:

TEMPLE VS. IOWA:

“Military intelligence two words combined that can’t make sense”. Dave Mustaine wrote that in the Megadeth classic ‘Hangar 18’. Here’s a couple of ‘words combined that can’t make sense’ or as us English Lit majors call it an ‘oxymoron’: “uptempo Big Ten team”. OK, that’s four words but you get the point. There’s a reason that the Big Ten isn’t known as an uptempo conference. The coaches that coach there know that the athletes who play there are better suited to a different system. There are exceptions here and there but not sure this Iowa team is one of them.

Temple is a team I’m somewhat nostalgic about since when I was first getting into the sports betting game they were a team that ‘sharp’ players loved. John Chaney roaming the sidelines with teams that played nasty and physical. It was as if the Philadelphia Flyers were transmogrified into a college basketball team. But things have changed and Fran Dunphy is head man now. And he’s looking to play up tempo.

So here’s how I see this going down–Iowa comes out to run and gun on Temple and gets it right back in their face from athletes better suited to that style. Plus they were really lousy in neutral court/tournament type games this season and in recent years. That’s something you don’t want at tournament time. Iowa is 1-4 ATS on neutral courts this year and 3-13 ATS L3 years. In tournament games, Iowa is 1-3 this year, 3-11 ATS L3 years.

BET TEMPLE +7 OVER IOWA

STEPHEN F. AUSTIN VS. WEST VIRGINIA:

You can ask Virginia Commonwealth about Stephen F. Austin and they’ll tell you that the Lumberjacks are no joke. SFA eliminated VCU from the tournament a couple of years ago and they’re fully capable of doing the same thing to West Virginia. If anything, the VCU team that SFA eliminated (don’t you love all of these initials) was more capable than this WVU team.

It’s a similar matchup, however, and WVU and SFA play similar styles. The Southland Conference might not be the pinnacle of college basketball but even in lower profile conferences few teams flat out dominate the way that Stephen F. Austin does. They went 18-0 SU in conference this year and have lost one conference game in the last three years. It doesn’t matter what conference a team plays in that’s nothing to casually dismiss. It shows not only talent and good coaching but discipline and focus. And those are qualities we love in NCAA tournament underdogs.

BET STEPHEN F. AUSTIN +8 OVER WEST VIRGINIA

WEBER STATE VS. XAVIER:

This might not be as solid of an early round underdog as Weber State was against Arizona two years ago. In fact, there’s a lot to like about Xavier–they’ve been a big moneymaker in NCAA tournament play and they play well on the road. We’re betting that they’ll be looking ahead to a potential second round matchup with either Wisconsin or Pittsburgh. And that might be enough for the Ogden, Utah based Weber State Wildcats to take care of business.

All in all, Weber State is no joke. Randy Rahe preaches nasty, tactical defense and is a brutally underrated coach. This is the type of team I look for in early round NCAA games because they’re made to order to keep teams with superior talent inside big pointspreads. This is especially true if Xavier lacks the focus they should have and realistically it’ll be hard for them *not* to look past this game.

BET WEBER STATE +13.5 OVER XAVIER

PITTSBURGH VS. WISCONSIN:

Wisconsin is usually a solid moneymaker at tournament time but this year could be an exception. They were eliminated by Nebraska in the Big Ten tournament–a team they should have beaten. But the Cornhuskers simply out-toughed them. Wisconsin has underachieved for awhile now and although they’ve got talent they just aren’t playing up to their potential. They’re doing little more than hoping that things change in the NCAA’s.

By the way, that’s not my assessment–that’s essentially a synopsis of what guard Bronson Koenig says is wrong with the team:

“They just played tougher than us, and that’s kind of what’s been our identity the past couple months. For us to come out like that, against Nebraska, a team we feel like we should have beaten, we were just pretty disappointed. We haven’t played our best basketball yet… now would be a great time for us to start playing up to our potential.”

Pitt has decent athleticism and could be a dangerous foe for any team not playing at their highest level.

BET PITTSBURGH +1.5 OVER WISCONSIN

About the Author: Jim Murphy

For more than 25 years, Jim Murphy has written extensively on sports betting as well as handicapping theory and practice. Jim Murphy has been quoted in media from the Wall Street Journal to REASON Magazine. Murphy worked as a radio and podcasting host broadcasting to an international audience that depended on his expertise and advice. Murphy is an odds making consultant for sports and 'non-sport novelty bets' focused on the entertainment business, politics, technology, financial markets and more.