MLB Baseball Betting for September 14, 2016

Full card of Major League Baseball for Wednesday:

MLB BASEBALL BETTING FOR SEPTEMBER 14, 2016:

CHICAGO CUBS AT ST. LOUIS CARDINALS:

The Chicago Cubs are just 5-5 in their last ten games after dropping Tuesday’s game to the St. Louis Cardinals. Of course that’s pretty much all they need to do at this point since they’re 16 games ahead of the second place Cardinals with 18 games left to play. The Cubs’ ‘magic number’ to clinch the NL Central title is 3–any combination of 3 Cubs wins or Cardinals’ losses. This means that a win here and a win over Milwaukee on Thursday at Wrigley Field and they’ve clinched.

The Cubs’ divisional title is inevitable but St. Louis making the postseason isn’t. The Cardinals are one of three teams vying for two National League wild card spots and at the moment they’re the ‘odd team out’. San Francisco is in the top wild card spot with a one game lead over the second wild card team, the New York Mets. The Cardinals are 1/2 game behind the Mets. There’s three teams behind St. Louis who trail by single digits but all three–Miami, Pittsburgh and Colorado–have a losing record in their last 10 games. The local media isn’t thrilled about the concept of a ‘pennant race’–to the contrary, there’s a prevailing opinion that the team is ‘uninterested in making the postseason‘. In particular, the primary issue is the Cardinals’ inconsistent offensive output.

That could be bad news here because they’re not only facing a lefthander–and they’ve struggled against southpaws this year–but facing one of the best in the business who happens to be in excellent form. Jon Lester gets the start for Chicago in this game and he’s been close to unhittable lately. In Lester’s last three games he’s pitched 22 innings allowing 13 hits, 1 earned run and striking out 17 against 4 walks. That’s a L3 ERA of 0.41 and a WHIP of 0.773. Statistically, the Cardinals aren’t bad against left handers with a .255 batting average and putting up 4.9 runs per game. They’ve lost money against southpaws, however, with a record of 18-21 -8.9 units. Then again, they’ve been awful at home in all situations this year with a record of 33-40 -24 units.

St. Louis will start right hander Carlos Marintez who has been very sharp lately. St. Louis has won his last three starts with Martinez putting up a 2.37 ERA and 1.474 WHIP. He’s allowed just 5 earned runs in 19 innings pitched but those games were against bottom feeders Cincinnati and Milwaukee (twice). He’ll find the going much tougher against the Cubs.

BET CHICAGO CUBS -130 OVER ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

SAN DIEGO PADRES AT SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS:

One of the fundamental rules of sports betting: look to go against teams in ‘must win’ situations. It’s always more difficult to win this type of game for a number of reasons. On a more practical level, you’ll *always* ‘pay a premium’ in the betting line to take the team that ‘must win’. The public gets hoodwinked by ‘must win’ situations thinking that it creates ‘urgency’. Of course the public thinks little about things like line value in the first place.

For whatever reason, the line on this game suggests that the San Francisco Giants are in a ‘must win’ situation. To be sure, they need to win games to keep their wildcard position and definitely if they’re hoping to make a run at the first place Los Angeles Dodgers. This individual game *isn’t* a must win situation. The Giants are three games back of the Los Angeles Dodgers with 18 games to play. The Dodgers are in good form winning 7 of 10 (though they lost on Tuesday) and that puts a bit more pressure on San Francisco to string some wins together. Even so, their season doesn’t ride on Wednesday’s 3:45 PM Eastern game against the San Diego Padres.

So how come the Giants are a -300 favorite here? The Padres aren’t much of a team and their biggest remaining goal for the 2016 season is to avoid finishing in last place in the NL West. They’re also facing Madison Bumgarner, one of the biggest ‘name’ pitchers in baseball. But let’s put this price into context–Bumgarner has faced the Padres three times this season. He was a -180 favorite at home on April 25, a -175 favorite at San Diego on May 17 and a -225 favorite at San Diego on July 15. Both Bumgarner and the Giants were in much better form for these games. On July 15, the Giants were in first place in the NL West with a 5.5 game lead over the Los Angeles Dodgers. San Francisco had a record of 57-34–the best in baseball. Heading into his 7/15 start against San Diego (a 4-1 SF loss) Bumgarner was 10-4 on the season with a 1.94 ERA. The Giants *were* -300 favorites in Monday’s opening game of the series but the same ‘must win’ dynamic was at play and that line was way too high (the Giants lost that game as well). Since July 16 the Giants are 21-32 putting them neck and neck with the San Diego Padres (21-33 since 7/15) for the worst record in the National League in that timeframe. 21 wins since 7/15 is the low water mark in baseball and only four teams have that dubious win total: the Giants, the Padres, the Minnesota Twins (aka the worst team in baseball) and the Arizona Diamondbacks.

As for Bumgarner, the Giants have won five of his last six starts following a five start losing streak. That would suggest that he’s on a hot run but it’s important to keep in mind that he’s factored in only 8 decisions since 7/15 with a record of 4-4. Bumgarner’s ERA since 7/15 has jumped from 1.94 to 2.61. The Padres have the worst team batting average in baseball (.235) but they’ve performed better against left handers hitting .247 and averaging 4.5 runs per game. They’ve also made money against LHP with a record of 19-20 for +5.6 units. Bumgarner is a good enough pitcher that he can dominate at any time but there’s just no way to justify laying -300 with the dysfunctional Giants.

BET SAN DIEGO PADRES +250 OVER SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS

About the Author: Jim Murphy

For more than 25 years, Jim Murphy has written extensively on sports betting as well as handicapping theory and practice. Jim Murphy has been quoted in media from the Wall Street Journal to REASON Magazine. Murphy worked as a radio and podcasting host broadcasting to an international audience that depended on his expertise and advice. Murphy is an odds making consultant for sports and 'non-sport novelty bets' focused on the entertainment business, politics, technology, financial markets and more.