MLB Baseball Betting for August 24, 2016

Full card for Wednesday as the Major League Baseball pennant races hit the top of the stretch. All records pending Tuesday night results unless noted otherwise:

MLB BASEBALL BETTING FOR AUGUST 24, 2016:

COLORADO ROCKIES AT MILWAUKEE BREWERS:

The Milwaukee Brewers are going nowhere and have only one semi-significant goal–to finish ahead of the Cincinnati Reds and avoid last place in the NL Central. They’re 25 games out of first place and 12.5 games out of the final NL wild card spot. The Brewers have a decent record at home (34-29 +6.8 units) but have been horrible on the road. How horrible? How about the worst road record in baseball horrible at 20-41 -16 units. That’s why they’ve been a tough team to figure since they’ve looked downright competent at times this season when playing at home. They’ve lost 7 of 10 and it won’t surprise you how they did it–they went 1-6 during a 7 game road trip and 2-1 at home.

The Rockies are still alive in the NL West, at least in theory It’s not that they’ve been playing particularly well (4-6 L10, 8-12 in August) but are playing in a division that no one seems to want to win. The LA Dodgers lead the division by 1 game over the San Francisco Giants. The Dodgers are 5-5 in their last 10 games which is significant as it’s the best L10 record in the division at the moment. The Rockies and Diamondbacks are 4-6 L10 while the Giants and Padres are 3-7 L10. Colorado could get back into the postseason hunt if they could string a few wins together. They’re just 9.5 games out of first, 8.5 games out of second and just 7 games out of a wild card spot.

There are some hopeful signs in Colorado–for one thing, they’ve put together a decent pitching staff which has long been considered an impossibility playing at Coors Field. The local media and fans are still hopeful that they’ll make a playoff run and this level enthusiasm hasn’t always been there in recent years. They’ve also got a nice young group of young players which is a big deal for a team that hasn’t always done well building their team from the ground up. The problem is that the offense has been inconsistent of late. The loss of shortstop Trevor Story to a season ending thumb injury sure didn’t help things–Story was leading the Majors in home runs (27) at the time of his injury.

Colorado will start Tyler Anderson, a young lefthander who at one point was one of the top prospects in the organization. He was the Rockies first pick in the 2011 draft out of the University of Oregon and Spring Valley High School in Las Vegas. Amazingly, he wouldn’t make his Major League Debut until five years later–it was repeatedly delayed due to recurring injuries. He’s been a very pleasant surprise and has actually pitched better at Coors Field than on the road, a rarity for a Rockies pitcher. In fact, after his first ten starts he boasted a 3.25 ERA which was the lowest for a Rockies pitcher after his first 10 starts in franchise history. Overall, Anderson has a 3.69 ERA with a 1.218 WHIP, a 4.35 ERA on the road with a 1.016 WHIP and a L3 ERA of 5.29 ERA and 1.059 WHIP. The Rockies are 7-6 in his starts overall, 1-3 in his road starts and 1-2 L3.

Milwaukee will counter with right hander Zach Davies who had pitched capably for most of the season but coming off two horrible starts going 9 innings allowing 12 ER and 18 hits. The Brewers are big on the 23 year old right hander and consider him the future ace of their staff but can’t be happy with his recent form. He was hit hard in April but through August 8 had the Majors’ best ERA since May (2.86).

Milwaukee does one thing especially well and that’s hit left handed pitching. For all games, the Brewers average 4.1 runs per game with a .246 BA. Against lefthanders, the Brewers put up 5.2 runs per game hitting .256. They’re 24-16 +12.9 units against left handers this year and we’ll bet accordingly. Anderson is a nice story for Colorado but he’s not dominating enough to negate Milwaukee’s strong performance against left handers.


BET MILWAUKEE BREWERS -105 OVER COLORADO ROCKIES


CHICAGO CUBS AT SAN DIEGO PADRES:

One skill that is important to develop as a baseball handicapper is the ability to find spots to jump in against good teams. This might be one of them. The Chicago Cubs have been the biggest ‘public’ team in baseball for several decades now. As a result, they’ve usually been overvalued and that hasn’t changed now that the team is one of the best in the sport. If you had bet against the Cubs in every game since 1997 you’d have earned 263.4 units of profit. One of the clearest signs that a baseball team is overvalued relative to the betting line is very evident with the Cubs. Even in situations where they have a very good record they’ve lost money. For example, they’re 34-26 on the road but have lost -4.8 units. Against right handed starters they’re 22 games over .500 at 53-31. If you’d bet on them in every game in 2016 against right handed pitching you’d have absolutely nothing to show for it. After 84 games against RHP they’re dead even. As a road favorite of -175 or more they’re 14-9 for a -3.6 unit loss. They’re 37-20 in day games but that translates to a half unit loss. So on and so forth.

The opposite is true with San Diego and in a number of situational breakdowns they have losing records but have turned a profit. At home, they’re 30-32 +4.9 units. As a home dog of +175 or more they’re 4-1 +7.4 units. They’ve not done well against right handers this year (37-54) but look at their ‘units lost’–despite being 17 games under .500 in this situation they’ve lost only 3.1 units.

Paul Clemens will get the start for San Diego but of greater interest is Cubs’ starter Kyle Hendricks. The media is finally realizing how good he is. He’s leading the Majors in ERA (2.16) but what’s interesting about Hendricks is his record. His tidy ERA hasn’t translated into an overly impressive W/L record. Hendricks’ personal record is 11-7 but the Cubs’ record when he starts is 13-10. On the road he’s got a 3.25 ERA and his decision record is 3-6 with the Cubs’ record in his starts at 4-7 -5.8 units. His L3 ERA is 1.77 with 4 ER in 20 1/3 innings. Somehow the Cubs went 1-2 in that stretch. All of the media love can only do one thing–inflate prices. Cubs up 5-0 in the top of the 8th on Tuesday meaning the Padres will very likely be playing to avoid the sweep. Hendricks faced the Padres on May 11 going 6 2/3 innings allowing 6 hits and 2 earned runs striking out 8 and walking 1. The Cubs lost. A similar result in this spot wouldn’t be a shock and we’re getting a huge price on the home team.

BET SAN DIEGO PADRES +220 OVER CHICAGO CUBS

About the Author: Jim Murphy

For more than 25 years, Jim Murphy has written extensively on sports betting as well as handicapping theory and practice. Jim Murphy has been quoted in media from the Wall Street Journal to REASON Magazine. Murphy worked as a radio and podcasting host broadcasting to an international audience that depended on his expertise and advice. Murphy is an odds making consultant for sports and 'non-sport novelty bets' focused on the entertainment business, politics, technology, financial markets and more.