–The long hyped fight between Conor McGregor and Floyd Mayweather appears to be a done deal.
–The fight is expected to take place on August 26 in Las Vegas.
–Mayweather should dominate McGregor fighting under boxing rules.
Hank Hill has a great line on an episode of ‘King of the Hill’ where his son Bobby gets involved with a Christian rock band: “Can’t you see you’re not making Christianity better, you’re just making rock and roll worse?”
That’s essentially the way I feel about the apparently forthcoming bout between Floyd Mayweather and Conor McGregor. I don’t understand why anyone would want to watch it, let along pay a reported $99.00 on PPV. McGregor is an entertaining character and a tough dude. He’s one of the few fighters in the UFC that knows how to ‘sell’ a fight. He better know how to sell a fight to make this work. Can he seriously convince anyone that despite no previous boxing experience that he’s going to even be competitive here? If he can make the public believe that he’ll be able to do what Manny Pacquiao, Oscar De La Hoya, Canelo Alverez, Shane Mosley and dozens of other capable boxers couldn’t and *beat* Mayweather he deserves an Academy Award.
I’ll do an in depth matchup analysis of this ‘fight’ in due course but since we’re talking a novice boxer against one of the great defensive tacticians in history the result is a foregone conclusion. For me, the most intriguing component is the ability to get a PPV audience to ‘buy in’. A term that pro wrestling geeks like to throw around is ‘suspension of disbelief’. That’s the ability to put aside the fact that the outcome has been ‘booked’ to happen a certain way and enjoy the show. I just don’t see how anyone can ‘suspend disbelief’ to the degree that you think this is a competitive fight any more than one could think that Conor McGregor could beat LeBron James in a game of one-on-one.
M-O-N-E-Y MAKES FIGHTS HAPPEN
Other than what I view as highly dubious appeal I don’t have a significant issue with the fight taking place. Some curmudgeons might grumble about it being an ‘insult to boxing’ but that shows a pretty sketchy knowledge of the fight game’s history. Boxing has never had an issue with making money off a spectacle like this. MMA–a sport that is essentially the illegitimate offspring of pro wrestling and tough guy competitions–most certainly doesn’t. In many cases, there would be a concern that a novice boxer fighting an all time great would be putting his health and well being at risk. I don’t really see that here either. McGregor doesn’t know how to box but he’s a tough as hell dude that should come out of the fight no worse physically than he went in. Another key component–while the tactical matchup against Mayweather makes it all but impossible for McGregor to win it also creates a situation where he is at minimal risk. If Mayweather were a KO specialist all kinds of bad things could happen against an inexperienced opponent.
I’ll be doing a bunch of props on the financial aspect of this fight in the near future but I’m wondering if this is really the big money matchup that everyone involved in the promotion seems to think it is. There’s a lot of people that find it interesting that a deal was able to be made but I sure don’t see a lot of enthusiasm about the fight itself. A few weeks after Mayweather v. Conor there’s a serious matchup at the T-Mobile Arena between Canelo Alverez and Gennady Golovkin. I see a ton more enthusiasm for the Canelo/Golovkin matchup and rightfully so since they’re two legit badasses. This is a fight that I’d be willing to pay to watch as would other boxing fans. That’s not the case with McGregor v. Mayweather.
So who *is* the ‘target market’ for McGregor v. Mayweather? The two most obvious demographics are boxing fans and MMA fans but they’re not especially excited about the fight. There’s little to suggest that they’ll be willing to fork over $99.95 en masse to watch the spectacle. This isn’t really surprising since the more a fan knows about fight sports the greater the understanding that this is a mismatch of monumental proportions.
These are the interesting questions about McGregor v. Mayweather. Who wants to see this and why? There might be some curiosity about what will happen but is it sufficient to prompt buying a hundred dollar PPV? How do you market a mismatch to make a big audience want to pay a premium to watch it? You can be sure that SPORTS BETTING EXPERTS will have the fight odds covered from more different angles than anyone on the planet. For now, we’ll start with the most fundamental of boxing odds,:
FLOYD MAYWEATHER VS. CONOR MCGREGOR PROPOSITION BETTING ODDS
TO WIN FIGHT:
Floyd Mayweather: -1750
Conor McGregor: +1250
O/U ROUND PROP:
Over 9.5 rounds: +130
Under 9.5 rounds: -150
METHOD OF VICTORY:
Floyd Mayweather by KO, TKO or DQ: -150
Floyd Mayweather by decision or technical decision: +125
Conor McGregor by KO, TKO or DQ: +750
Conor McGregor by decision or technical decision: +3500
Draw or Technical Draw: +3500
EXACT METHOD OF VICTORY:
Floyd Mayweather by unanimous decision: +150
Floyd Mayweather by split decision: +2500
Floyd Mayweather by majority decision: +2500
Floyd Mayweather by technical decision: +7500
Floyd Mayweather by knockout: +300
Floyd Mayweather by technical knockout (TKO): +250
Floyd Mayweather by disqualification: +650
Conor McGregor by unanimous decision: +15000
Conor McGregor by split decision: +10000
Conor McGregor by majority decision: +10000
Conor McGregor by technical decision: +10000
Conor McGregor by knockout: +1500
Conor McGregor by technical knockout (TKO): +1500
Conor McGregor by disqualification: +7500
FLOYD MAYWEATHER–ROUND BETTING
Mayweather wins by Decision: +100
Mayweather wins in Round 1: +1750
Mayweather wins in Round 2: +1750
Mayweather wins in Round 3: +1750
Mayweather wins in Round 4: +1250
Mayweather wins in Round 5: +1250
Mayweather wins in Round 6: +1250
Mayweather wins in Round 7: +1250
Mayweather wins in Round 8: +1000
Mayweather wins in Round 9: +1000
Mayweather wins in Round 10: +1000
Mayweather wins in Round 11: +1000
Mayweather wins in Round 12: +1000
CONOR MCGREGOR–ROUND BETTING
McGregor wins by Decision: +3500
McGregor wins in Round 1: +4000
McGregor wins in Round 2: +4000
McGregor wins in Round 3: +4000
McGregor wins in Round 4: +4000
McGregor wins in Round 5: +4000
McGregor wins in Round 6: +5000
McGregor wins in Round 7: +5000
McGregor wins in Round 8: +7000
McGregor wins in Round 9: +7000
McGregor wins in Round 10: +7000
McGregor wins in Round 11: +7000
McGregor wins in Round 12: +7000
FIGHT WILL END:
In an odd numbered round: +225
In an even numbered round: -250
WILL MAYWEATHER WIN EVERY ROUND ON ALL THREE JUDGES SCORECARDS?
No or fight does not go to a decision: -700
WILL BOTH FIGHTERS BE KNOCKED DOWN DURING THE FIGHT?
WILL FLOYD MAYWEATHER BE KNOCKED DOWN DURING THE FIGHT?
WILL CONOR MCGREGOR BE KNOCKED DOWN DURING THE FIGHT?
WILL FLOYD MAYWEATHER BE KNOCKED DOWN AND WIN THE FIGHT?
WILL CONOR MCGREGOR BE KNOCKED DOWN AND WIN THE FIGHT?
TOTAL KNOCKDOWNS IN THE FIGHT?
Over 1.5: +130
Under 1.5: -150
TOTAL KNOCKDOWNS IN THE FIGHT?
Over 2.5: +375
Under 2.5: -450
TOTAL KNOCKDOWNS IN THE FIGHT?
Over 3.5: +750
Under 3.5: -900
WILL EITHER FIGHTER BE KNOCKED DOWN TWICE IN ONE ROUND?
WILL CONOR MCGREGOR THROW A KICK DURING A FIGHT?
WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE?
WILL THE FIGHT END AT OR BEFORE THE 1:00 MARK OF THE FIRST ROUND?
WILL FLOYD MAYWEATHER WIN AT OR BEFORE THE 1:00 MARK OF THE FIRST ROUND?
WILL CONOR MCGREGOR WIN AT OR BEFORE THE 1:00 MARK OF THE FIRST ROUND?
WILL A PUNCH BE THROWN IN THE FIRST TEN SECONDS OF THE FIGHT?
WILL CONOR MCGREGOR LAND FEWER THAN 50 PUNCHES PER COMPUBOX?
WILL CONOR MCGREGOR NOT LAND A PUNCH IN ROUND ONE PER COMPUBOX?
Yes, McGregor doesn’t land a Round 1 punch: +500
No, McGregor lands a punch in Round 1: -750
WILL EITHER FIGHTER’S CORNER ‘THROW IN THE TOWEL’?
Any stoppage requested by the corner is a winner. Actual towel need not be involved.
WILL EITHER FIGHTER HAVE A POINT DEDUCTED BY THE REFEREE?
WILL EITHER FIGHTER BE WARNED FOR A LOW BLOW?
WILL US PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP ATTEND THE FIGHT?
WILL IRISH PRESIDENT MICHAEL D. HIGGINS ATTEND THE FIGHT?
WILL A REMATCH BE SIGNED UNDER MMA RULES BY 11:59 PM EST ON 12/31/17?
WILL MAYWEATHER AND MCGREGOR FIGHT IN A REMATCH OF ANY TYPE BY 11:59 PM EST ON 12/31/18?
WILL THE FIGHT TAKE PLACE AS SCHEDULED ON AUGUST 26, 2017 AT T-MOBILE ARENA IN LAS VEGAS?
No, fight does not take place or different date and/or venue: +300
MAYWEATHER VS. MCGREGOR PPV BUYS
Over 4.75 million: +110
Under 4.75 million: -130
MAYWEATHER VS. MCGREGOR PPV REVENUE
Over $395 million: +110
Under $395 million: -130