Entertainment Betting–‘Rogue One: A Star Wars Story’ Box Office Revenue Odds

–Director J.J. Abrams revitalized the franchise making ‘Star Wars: The Force Awakens’ the biggest US box office film ever.

– ‘Star Wars: The Force Awakens’ has done over $2 billion in worldwide revenues.

– ‘Rogue One: A Star Wars Story’ is expected to be a huge hit as well.

The film business has changed dramatically over the past few decades. Just take a look at the industry reaction to the opening weekend of the new Harry Potter movie ‘Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them’. It’s amazing that we’ve reached a point where a film can take in $75 million opening weekend domestically, almost twice that much internationally for a $219,903,387 worldwide opening weekend and the prevailing opinion is that these numbers are ‘disappointing’. With production costs of $180 million it’s almost certain that ‘Fantastic Beasts’ will wind up ‘in the black’ (even with the screwy accounting that Hollywood is famous for) but it’s hard not to understand the feeling of disappointment when earlier this year ‘Deadpool’ did a $152,193,853 opening weekend with production costs of just over $50,000,000.

THE GAME HAS CHANGED

At one point, the film industry was run much like any other business. The studios had a simple metric–they wanted their releases to take in enough to cover production costs and marketing and hopefully earn a reasonable amount of profit. Since their primary revenue source was domestic box office receipts they did a lot to make this formula work on the ‘cost’ side. Actors and actresses were signed to studio contracts so they could be ‘re-used’ in multiple productions across genres. The bigger studios had ‘stock’ sets that could be used over and over for different films on their ‘back lot’–for example, a ‘Wild West’ main street. Pick up any biography of a film industry legend from Orson Welles to Francis Ford Coppola and you’ll read about the reality of fighting studios for budget and creative control.

In 2016, the world is completely different. Studios employ more of a ‘jackpot mentality’ where they invest in big budget blockbusters hoping to make more money than they spend. Making this formula more realistic are the multiple revenue streams available including a huge foreign box office market, DVD and cable sales, and even multiple ‘experiences’ available for individual films like IMAX. Critics blame this for a film industry that eschews creativity for repackaged remakes of familiar TV shows/movies and ‘franchises’. In my view, however, the studios are just reacting in the best way they can to a changing world where great programming can be found on HBO and Netflix and every decent cellphone has video equipment that a director like Alfred Hitchcock could only dream of. HBO can create excellent programming like ‘The Sopranos’ or ‘Game of Thrones’. They can’t create a $200 million special effects laden onslaught shown on a 3-D IMAX screen.

STAR WARS REMAINS A CONSTANT IN A CHANGING INDUSTRY

Even as someone who really enjoyed the original ‘Star Wars’ film as a kid I would have never have guessed that it would have remained one of the most lucrative box office franchises into the 21st Century. Most people you’d have asked in 1977 when the original film was released would have dismissed you as a nut if you told them that in 2016 one of many ‘Star Wars’ sequels would be the biggest film in US box office history. In fact, they would have probably considered you equally as nutty if you made that case in 1999 to an audience that had just endured ‘Star Wars 1: The Phantom Menace’. At that point, it looked like the franchise had run its course and that despite solid box office numbers the producers were ‘beating a dead horse’.

The entire mood surrounding the franchise changed when director J.J. Abrams took over. Episodes 1 through 3 were considered forgettable by fans and miserable by critics. Abrams changed all of that with ‘Star Wars: The Force Awakens’. Hardcore Star Wars fans loved it and it was good enough to bring those alienated by the previous three films back to the fold. Critics were also generally favorable and particularly within the context of the original films. And as we noted above, it’s now the biggest box office film in US history bringing in $936,662,225. Worldwide, the film has topped the $2 billion (US) mark. Most impressively, it broke the $1 billion (US) worldwide revenue mark after just 12 days of release.

Although the next ‘official’ release in the ‘Star Wars canon’ won’t be out until December 2017 (the working title is ‘Star Wars: Episode VIII’) Disney is looking to parlay the revived popularity of the franchise with a spinoff series. The debut release is the most hotly anticipated movie of 2016. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story isn’t part of the ‘official narrative’ set in motion by ‘Star Wars: The Force Awakens’ but is intended to expand the ‘world’ contextually and provide more depth to the backstory of the Rebel Alliance. In the process, LucasFilm and Disney hope to bank another billion or so. If they can keep the historically rabid Star Wars fanbase happy and get decent critical reviews all the better. We’ll find out if they’re able to pull it off when the film is released on December 16, 2016.

ROGUE ONE: A STAR WARS STORY MOVIE SPECIALS

Box Office Revenue Props

Which film will have the highest 2016 US box office gross revenue?:

Rogue One-A Star Wars Story: -750
Finding Dory: +450
Other: +7500

Which film will have the highest 2016 Worldwide box office gross revenue?:

Rogue One-A Star Wars Story: -450
Captain America–Civil War: +275
Zootopia: +275
Finding Dory: +275
Other: +7500

Which film will have the highest 2016 single weekend box office gross revenue?:

Rogue One-A Star Wars Story: -450
Deadpool: +375
Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them–Harry Potter Prequel: +750
Dr. Strange: +750
Other: +7500

Will ‘Rogue One-A Star Wars Story’ exceed $1 billion in worldwide revenues by 1/1/17?:

Yes: -175
No: +150

Box Office Revenue Matchup Bets

Which film will have the higher US opening weekend gross box office revenues?:

Rogue One-A Star Wars Story: -450
Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them +$100 million US ($174,403,387) : +275

Which film will have the higher US opening weekend gross box office revenues?:

Rogue One–A Star Wars Story: -150
Deadpool +$100 million US ($232,434,639): +110

Which film will have the higher US opening weekend gross box office revenues?:

Rogue One–A Star Wars Story: -125
Finding Dory +$100 million US ($235,060,273): +105

Which film will have the higher US opening weekend gross box office revenues?:

Rogue One–A Star Wars Story: -110
Batman vs. Superman +$75 million US ($241,007,347): -110

Which film will have the higher US opening weekend gross box office revenues?:

Rogue One–A Star Wars Story: +110
Return of the Jedi (1983) adjusted for inflation +$200 million($255,798,999): -150

Which film will have the higher US opening weekend gross box office revenues?:

Rogue One–A Star Wars Story: -120
The Empire Strikes Back (1980) adjusted for inflation +$225 million($239,387,476): +100

Which film will have the higher US opening weekend gross box office revenues?:

Rogue One-A Star Wars Story: -125
Avatar (2009) adjusted for inflation +$150 million US (236,680,189): +105

RottenTomatoes.com Review Props

The RottenTomatoes.com ‘Tomatometer’ rating percentage for ‘Rogue One-A Star Wars Story’ on 1/1/17 will be:

Higher than the ‘Tomatometer’ rating percentage for Star Wars: Episode VII-The Force Awakens (92%): +120
Lower than the ‘Tomatometer’ rating percentage for Star Wars: Episode VII-The Force Awakens (92%): -150

The RottenTomatoes.com ‘Tomatometer’ rating percentage for ‘Rogue One-A Star Wars Story’ on 1/1/17 will be:

Higher than the ‘Tomatometer’ rating percentage for Star Wars: Episode III-Revenge of the Sith (79%): -135
Lower than the ‘Tomatometer’ rating percentage for Star Wars: Episode III-Revenge of the Sith (79%): +105

The RottenTomatoes.com ‘Tomatometer’ rating percentage for ‘Rogue One-A Star Wars Story’ on 1/1/17 will be:

Higher than the ‘Tomatometer’ rating percentage for Star Wars: Episode II-Attack of the Clones (65%): -200
Lower than the ‘Tomatometer’ rating percentage for Star Wars: Episode II-Attack of the Clones (65%): +170

The RottenTomatoes.com ‘Tomatometer’ rating percentage for ‘Rogue One-A Star Wars Story’ on 1/1/17 will be:

Higher than the ‘Tomatometer’ rating percentage for Star Wars: Episode I: The Phantom Menace (55%): -300
Lower than the ‘Tomatometer’ rating percentage for Star Wars: Episode I: The Phantom Menace (55%): +250

The RottenTomatoes.com ‘Audience Score ‘rating percentage for ‘Rogue One-A Star Wars Story’ on 1/1/17 will be:

Higher than the ‘Audience Score’ rating percentage for Star Wars: Episode VII-The Force Awakens: +120
Lower than the ‘Audience Score’ rating percentage for Star Wars: Episode VII-The Force Awakens: -150

Movie Critic Rating Props

The ‘Rolling Stone’ Magazine review score for ‘Rogue One-A Star Wars Story’ will be:

Over 3.25: -125
Under 3.25: +105

The ‘Rolling Stone’ Magazine review score for ‘Rogue One-A Star Wars Story’ will be:

Over 2.25: -250
Under 2.25: +175

The ‘NPR’ review score for ‘Rogue One-A Star Wars Story’ will be:

Over 7.25: -125
Under 7.25: +105

The ‘NPR’ review score for ‘Rogue One-A Star Wars Story’ will be:

Over 8.25: +125
Under 8.25: -150

The ‘USA TODAY’ review score for ‘Rogue One-A Star Wars Story’ will be:

Over 3.75: +150
Under 3.75: -185

The ‘USA TODAY’ review score for ‘Rogue One-A Star Wars Story’ will be:

Over 2.75: -150
Under 2.75: +120

The BoxOfficeMojo.com website will be used for grading of all box office revenue props. ‘Opening Weekend’ is considered the first Friday through Sunday period that the film is in wide release. Inflation adjustments, where noted, have been done with the ‘inflation calculator’ at US Inflation Calculator.com and the indicated numbers will be official for the purpose of grading wagers. All RottenTomatoes.com props will be graded on data from the website as of 12 noon Eastern on 1/1/17. Movie critic review scores reported at RottenTomatoes.com will be used for official grading. If an indicated media source does not review the film, or if they don’t provide a rating score in the indicated format all bets involving that source will be graded ‘no action’.

About the Author: Jim Murphy

For more than 25 years, Jim Murphy has written extensively on sports betting as well as handicapping theory and practice. Jim Murphy has been quoted in media from the Wall Street Journal to REASON Magazine. Murphy worked as a radio and podcasting host broadcasting to an international audience that depended on his expertise and advice. Murphy is an odds making consultant for sports and 'non-sport novelty bets' focused on the entertainment business, politics, technology, financial markets and more.