Entertainment Betting–Early 2017 Academy Awards Odds For Best Actor and Actress
–Nominations for the 2017 Academy Awards will be released on January 24
– The 89th Annual Academy Awards will be held on February 26, 2017
– If you can pick a nominated film or two before they’re announced you’re in a great position.
A few days ago we posted our first odds on the 2017 Academy Award for ‘Best Picture’. We’ll add the two major acting awards in this article and continue over the next few days with ‘Best Director’, ‘Best Supporting Actor’, ‘Best Supporting Actress’ and an assortment of general proposition bets. If you haven’t read the ‘Best Picture’ odds article you should take the time to do so–there’s a lot of information about the general strategy to employ when facing a wide open futures market full of nice prices on legitimate contenders.
THE NOMINATION AND VOTING PROCESS
The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (hereafter referred to as ‘The Academy’) will release the nominations for the 2017 Academy Awards on January 24, 2017. Unlike the ‘Best Picture’ category which has no set number of nominees both the ‘Best Actor’ and ‘Best Actress’ categories are limited to five and have been since 1937. The other primary difference between the acting awards and the ‘Best Picture’ award is that only the ‘actors branch’ of the Academy votes on nominees. They have a single transferable vote in each acting category. Once the nominees are determined they’re voted on by the entire membership of The Academy.
The basic idea in a wide open futures market like this is just to ‘be in the game’ when the nominations are announced. It’s essentially the same as picking teams in league championship futures betting with a large playoff field (eg: the NBA or NHL). At this point we’re not trying to ‘pick a winner’. The ‘sucker play’ (at least usually) is to bet on one of the favorites with the rationale that you’ll ‘lock in a great price’. It seldom works out as it’s ‘drawn up’ because even the ‘early lines’ are seldom a positive EV play. Instead, look for value plays on actors/actresses that could very well get nominated. That will open up hedge opportunities where you can bet on more nominees after they’re announced and put yourself into a ‘can’t lose’ position. We’ll go into greater detail on this after the nominees are released.
WHO WINS AND WHO GETS NOMINATED?
The Academy is very mindful of its history and the symbolic importance of these awards. In general terms, the ‘Supporting Actor/Actress’ category is used to give an up and coming actor ‘legitimacy’ (eg: Benicio Del Toro in 2000 for ‘Traffic’). It’s used for other reasons as well–you see a lot of older actors get it late in their career (James Coburn in 1998 for ‘Affliction’) or actors making a ‘comeback’–or in one of the most famous examples a former ‘teen idol’ singer that went on to have a great career (Frank Sinatra in 1953 for ‘From Here To Eternity’). For that reason, you don’t see ‘repeat winners’ in the ‘Supporting’ categories. Walter Brennan won three of the first five ‘Best Supporting Actor’ awards (1936, 1938, 1940) but no one else has won more than two.
The ‘Best Actor’ and ‘Best Actress’ awards are a more serious deal. If you look through the list of nominees and winners you won’t see a lot of ‘weak links’. There’s also no guarantee that even a talented, popular actor will win this award on their first nomination. Leonardo DiCaprio famously went 0 for 3 in ‘Best Actor’ nominations before winning last year. The Academy is very mindful of historical context and you just don’t see an actor racking up ‘Best Actor’ victories throughout their career. Daniel Day-Lewis has won 3, with no one else winning more than twice.
89TH ACADEMY AWARDS–BEST ACTOR
Actor to win the Academy Award for ‘Best Actor’
Denzel Washington (Fences): +110
Casey Affleck (Manchester By The Sea): +150
Andrew Garfield (Silence): +600
Ryan Gosling (La La Land): +800
Joel Edgerton (Loving): +1400
Tom Hanks (Sully): +1400
Colin Farrell (The Lobster): +3300
Adam Driver (Paterson): +3300
Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic): +5000
Joseph Gorden-Levitt (Snowden): +5000
Jake Gyllenhaal (Nocturnal Animals): +5000
Brad Pitt (Allied): +6600
Jeremy Irons (The Man Who Knew Infinity): +6600
89TH ACADEMY AWARDS–BEST ACTRESS
Actress to win the Academy Award for ‘Best Actress’
Natalie Portman (Jackie): -110
Emma Stone(La La Land): +110
Ruth Negga(Loving): +450
Annette Bening(20th Century Women): +750
Amy Adams(Arrival): +850
Isabelle Huppert(Elle): +1400
Jessica Chastain(Miss Slone): +1800
Meryl Streep(Florence Foster Jenkins): +3300
Emily Blunt(The Girl on the Train): +5000
Alicia Vikander(The Light Between Oceans): +5000
Jennifer Lawrence(Passengers): +5000
Rooney Mara(Lion): +5000