‘Dancing with the Stars’ Season 25 Episode 2 Betting Odds
–This is the 25th season for ABC’s reality show.
–NFL running back Rashad Jennings was the Season 24 winner.
–’Dancing With The Stars’ Episode 2 will air on September 25, 2017.
The first episode of ‘Dancing with the Stars’ Season 25 is in the books and for the most part it went how we thought it would. Not that you can really tell what’s going to happen based on Week 1. It’s more to introduce the new contestants than anything else and the judges aren’t being especially critical. There were no eliminations in Week 1 and that was to be expected. In the past 14 seasons of ‘DTWS’ there have been only four ‘Week 1’ eliminations. Olympic track star Lolo Jones (Season 19).Pamela Anderson aka the former wife of Motley Crue drummer Tommy Lee (Season 15), former NBA basketball player Metta World Peace aka Ron Artest (Season 13) none other than David Hasselhoff who was given the boot after the first episode in Season 11.
In the article that accompanied my original ‘DWTS’ odds for Season 25 I noted that it’s difficult to set numbers before the season begins and you actually see the contestants dance. It’s even more difficult to look into the future and determine how they’ll progress from week to week. Some underwhelming contestants ‘on paper’ turn out to perform well such as last season’s runner up, David Ross. Contestants that should be contending for the win don’t reach their potential as Olympic gymnast Simone Biles did last year. The DWTS judges appear to reward improvement from week to week rather than against some objective qualitative standard of dancing ability. That means the ‘bar’ is set higher for a contestant with some previous dancing experience than it is for a former baseball player like Ross. Then again, there’s always a lead footed entrant or two that no one can do anything with–last season Chris Kattan made fellow contestants (and early eliminations) Charo and Mr. T look like Fred Astaire and Ginger Rogers.
AND THEN THERE WERE THREE….
The most obvious change from last season is the fact there’s only three judges. It was reported last week that Julianne Hough was a ‘late scratch’ and instead of finding a last minute replacement the show is going with three judges. There’s been a lot of speculation on why Hough chose to ‘sit this one out’ though there’s no official word from either side. She did recently get married to pro hockey player Brooks Laich so that might have something to do with it. Laich is an unrestricted free agent–the Washington Capitals traded him to Toronto last year in an effort to clear cap space. He’s currently in the Los Angeles Kings’ training camp but at age 34 isn’t a ‘lock’ to make the team. He’s definitely a guy that would benefit any team ‘in the room’ with his veteran leadership and reputation for being a complete class act off the ice. That might not get him a roster spot, however, since team speed is just so important right now which is why every team in the league is trying to ‘get younger’. No clue on what Hough’s plans are going forward nor if there’s any ill will with ‘DWTS’ producers. The only thing they’ve said ‘on the record’ about the judges didn’t reveal anything:
“We are thrilled to have Len, Bruno, and Carrie Ann back in the ballroom and look forward to welcoming guest judges wherever possible.”
The move to three judges won’t significantly change the dynamic of the show though it will make it necessary for me to do a little math when doing cross seasonal score comparisons. I’ve also had to adjust the scoring props downward but otherwise it’s business as usual.
EPISODE ONE CONTESTANT REPORT CARD
I ran down the entire contestant roster in the Episode 1 preview and provided my analysis of their chances. Until further notice, that’s how I’ll report on the ‘DWTS’ shows going forward–we’ll look at each dancer’s performance in the previous week and that should explain the competitive dynamic and what it means for the betting odds.
VICTORIA ARLEN: Victoria Arlen was middle of the pack in Week 1 with a 19 score but the fact she’s here at all is amazing. In my pre-season analysis I compared her to bullrider Bonner Bolton from last year. Bolton was lucky to survive after a bull broke his neck but that was a ‘mere flesh wound’ compared to what Arlen’s dealt with. The first bio I read on Arlen noted that she had ‘just recently regained use of her legs’. Here’s the story-she spent four years in a vegetative state (2006 to 2010). Coming out of that at all to have any type of normal life would be amazing enough but by 2012 she was a Gold Medal winning Paralympic swimmer. But wait–there’s more! In April 2016 she *learned to walk again* after being paralyzed from the waist down for almost a decade. You’re always reading about celebrities’ lame stories about ‘overcoming adversity’ but Arlen is on another level. I’m not an easy mark for this sort of thing but this is an amazing story. And as if she already hadn’t overcome enough Episode 1 revealed that **she has no feeling in her legs**. She probably won’t win but it wouldn’t surprise me to see her go deep in the competition. How does a judge lower the boom on someone who didn’t walk for nearly ten years but is now walking again? The balls it takes to do what she’s done is impossible to fathom.
NIKKI BELLA: Last week I observed that Nikki Bella has all of the ‘intangibles’ I look for when picking a ‘DWTS’ winner–trainable, in great physical shape, not afraid of a little pain and she’ll look excellent in a cocktail dress. I was correct on all counts–she’s obviously a beautiful woman and turned in a solid performance that earned a 20 from the judges. She even bodyslammed partner Artem Chigvintsev at the end of their routine. Here’s what E! News said about her Week 1 showing:
We will not complain if every single one of Nikki’s dances ends with a wrestling move, because damn does it feel good to have a badass lady on the dance floor who is, as she says, more used to body slamming other girls than looking elegant. Sometimes DWTS could use some body slamming.
Bella finished with the fourth highest score on the night which is impressive since she doesn’t have any formal dance background. I was bullish on her chances before the season and even more so now. The mainstream media doesn’t appreciate how hard it is to become a good pro wrestler and how many similarities it has to dancing.
BARBARA CORCORAN: Corcoran is best known from the ‘Shark Tank’ reality show and is in ridiculous shape for a 68 year old woman. Even so, there’s nothing to suggest that she can dance or even undergo the rigorous training regimen necessary to do so. She’s very likable, will pull in some fans to vote for her but the reality is that no one over the age of 52 has ever won ‘DWTS’ (Donny Osmond was 52 when he won Season 9. The oldest female winner was 50 year old Jennifer Grey in Season 11). Corcoran finished with the lowest score (14) in Episode 1 but she didn’t embarrass herself. She’s doing a ‘horny cougar’ gimmick and throwing sexual innuendo at partner Keo Motsepe like she was Blanche on ‘The Golden Girls’. She is enthusiastic and that could keep her around for awhile.
DEREK FISHER: D-Fish did a fun angle with his mom who apparently didn’t know he was going to be on ‘DWTS’ until rehearsals started. She’s stoked and her performance likely earned her son a higher score than he deserved. Fisher goes with a hoop themed dance but there’s little to suggest he’ll do much in routines that don’t involve basketball. He has ‘presence’ but at some point his lack of technique will do him in. In a field with a lot of parity I still think he’ll be the first to go.
JORDAN FISHER: Who let in the ringer? In the words of E! Online:
OK, this guy is so good that it might not be fair to the other contestants, but like…we love Jordan so much that we don’t actually care. Our reaction to him gliding across that dance floor was very Carrie Ann Inaba-esque. Wowza.
Fisher has clearly done this before but being the best at the start of the season doesn’t get you much if you don’t keep improving (see Biles, Simone). Not that he won’t, but the bar is definitely set higher for contestants with a dancing background. Definitely has the look of a finalist. Tied for the highest score of Week 1 with a 22.
DEBBIE GIBSON: There are still questions about her endurance after battling Lyme Disease for the past several years. She’s struggled with it for several years and clearly views her ‘DWTS’ stint as a ‘comeback’. My take on her hasn’t changed: Best case scenario? She could win. Worst case scenario? Probably a middle of the pack finish. Her dance was just so-so and not to minimize her health issues but it’s hard to feel too sorry for her in light of Victoria Arlen’s ungodly story. Debbie pulled a 17 from the judges which put’s her at the tail end of the middle of the pack. My hunch is she’ll improve.
NICK LACHEY: My take while watching Nick Lachey’s performance? I expected him to be better. That sentiment was echoed by others including E! Online:
Nick was exactly what we expected him to be, and that is neither good nor bad. It just is. His wife definitely overshadowed him.
Nick finished with an 18 putting him in a three way tie for the #7 score. IMO he looked tentative and awkward for a guy with so much performing experience. Not sure if he’s got a ‘next level’.
VANESSA LACHEY: Likely the biggest surprise of the show. I had dismissed her as just a random pretty girl but she nailed her dance and looked like a star. Still not sure that she’s going to get much better but she’s definitely a more legit contender than I had given her credit for. Finished with a 21, the third highest score of the night.
FRANKIE MUNIZ: Frankie was a bit of a surprise himself. He finished with a middle of the pack 19 and is a decent dancer already though clearly nervous. He really comes off as a likable guy so if he shows some improvement and gets over his ‘stage fright’ he could be in the competition for awhile.
TERRELL OWENS: T.O. clearly has the potential to win this but looked a little bit reserved–surprising for a guy with such a ‘big’ personality. He’s clearly put in some work which is exactly what I wanted to see. In terms of athleticism, he’s on another level from the rest of the field. There have been some analysts concerned about T.O.’s notoriously prickly personality but they forgot one thing–he’s charismatic as hell when he wants to be. E! Online summed it up well:
That was exactly like the first dance of nearly every other football player who has graced this ballroom, so it was fun, but it all depends on what happens when he actually starts learning to dance for real.
He was the leadoff dancer on the show which didn’t do him any favors. Probably deserved higher than the 15 he received. Still can’t get past the historical ‘DWTS’ performance of NFL players in general and wide receivers in particular–NFL players have four wins, 7 top two finishes and 9 top three finishes. Of those nine NFL-ers 5 of them were wide receivers.
SASHA PIETERSE: Hard to say what’ll happen to Sasha who finished with an 18. She looked really nervous and reserved and that’s not good for a dancer. Her dress didn’t work for her either–she’s put on some weight over the past couple of years and her dress did more to ‘accent the negative’ than the positive. One of the reasons she’s doing the show is to get in shape for her wedding. Could go either way.
DREW SCOTT: He’ll need to get by with his large fanbase since his dancing was described as ‘clunky’ and ‘clumsy’. Expected more out of his performance. He’s not as bad as Chris Kattan last year and is at least in good shape but looks like he has ‘two left feet’. Could be a quick exit for the ‘Property Brothers’ co-star.
LINDSEY STIRLING: I had her pegged as a legit contender and she didn’t do anything to make me reconsider that, tying with Jordan Fisher for the high score of the night. E! Online gushed about her performance:
OK, this is a PERFECT pairing, and she’s already completely incredible. That looked way too easy for her, and there’s already way too much competition at the head of the pack. It’s week one! This feels rude! Who will we choose for our DWTS office pool?!
She really does have it all. If she continues to improve she can win this. She already has that ‘it’ factor. Don’t forget that she’s ridiculously popular–her YouTube Channel has 9.7 million subscribers and her videos have a mere 1.8 billion plus views.
Here’s the betting odds for Season 25 of ‘Dancing with the Stars’ along with some odds on Episode 2:
DANCING WITH THE STARS SEASON 25 BETTING ODDS
TO WIN DANCING WITH THE STARS SEASON 25
Nikki Bella: +350
Jordan Fisher: +350
Lindsey Stirling: +350
Terrell Owens: +750
Debbie Gibson: +950
Frankie Muniz: +950
Vanessa Lachey: +1500
Victoria Arlen: +1500
Sasha Pieterse: +1500
Drew Scott: +2500
Nick Lachey: +2500
Barbara Corcoran: +5000
Derek Fisher: +5000
TO WIN DANCING WITH THE STARS SEASON 25
Nikki Bella/Jordan Fisher/Lindsey Sterling: -125
Any other contestant: +105
DANCING WITH THE STARS SEASON 25 WEEK 2 BETTING ODDS
WHO WILL BE ELIMINATED IN WEEK 2?
Derek Fisher: +350
Barbara Corcoran: +350
Drew Scott: +600
Nick Lachey: +750
Sasha Pieterse: +950
Terrell Owens: +950
Vanessa Lachey: +1500
Frankie Muniz: +1500
Victoria Arlen: +1500
Debbie Gibson: +2500
Lindsey Stirling: +2500
Nikki Bella: +2500
Jordan Fisher: +2500
No One Eliminated in Week 2: +2500
WHO WILL BE ELIMINATED IN WEEK 2?
Derek Fisher/Barbara Corcoran/Drew Scott: -300
Any other contestant: +250
JUDGES’ HIGHEST SCORE IN WEEK 2
Jordan Fisher: +300
Nikki Bella: +400
Lindsey Stirling: +400
Debbie Gibson: +750
Frankie Muniz: +750
Vanessa Lachey: +900
Terrell Owens: +900
Victoria Arlen: +1500
Drew Scott: +1500
Sasha Pieterse: +1500
Nick Lachey: +1750
Barbara Corcoran: +2500
Derek Fisher: +2500
JUDGES’ HIGHEST SCORE IN WEEK 2
Jordan Fisher/Nikki Bella/Lindsey Stirling: -150
Any other contestant: +130
JUDGES’ LOWEST SCORE IN WEEK 2
Derek Fisher: +250
Barbara Corcoran: +250
Nick Lachey: +700
Drew Scott: +700
Sasha Pieterse: +900
Terrell Owens: +900
Vanessa Lachey: +1500
Victoria Arlen: +1500
Frankie Muniz: +1750
Debbie Gibson: +1750
Nikki Bella: +2500
Lindsey Stirling: +3500
Jordan Fisher: +3500
JUDGES’ LOWEST SCORE IN WEEK 2
Barbara Corcoran/Derek Fisher/Drew Scott: -170
Any other contestant: +150
OVERALL SCORING PROPOSITION ODDS
NUMBER OF ’10’ SCORES TO BE AWARDED IN WEEK 2
0: -1500
1-3: +450
4-7: +1000
8+: +5000
NUMBER OF ‘9’ SCORES TO BE AWARDED IN WEEK 2
0: -500
1-3: +300
4-7: +650
8+: +2500
OVERALL AVERAGE SCORE FOR WEEK 2 WILL BE?
Over 19.5: -130
Under 19.5: +110
THE LOWEST SCORE OF WEEK 2 WILL BE
Over 15.5: +130
Under 15.5: -150
THE HIGHEST SCORE OF WEEK 2 WILL BE
Over 23.5: -130
Under 23.5: +110
TV RATINGS PROPOSITION ODDS
WEEK 2 KEY DEMO (18-49) RATINGS
Over 1.8: -150
Under 1.8: +130
WEEK 2 KEY DEMO (18-49) SHARE
Over 6.5: -250
Under 6.5: +210
WEEK 2 TOTAL VIEWERS
Over 11.75 million: -120
Under 11.75 million: +100
WEEK 2 NIELSEN RANKING (9/25/17 through 10/1/17)
Over 10.5: -125
Under 10.5: +105