Costa Rica Favored to Overtake Upstart Canadians
Who: Costa Rica v. Canada
When: Tuesday July 11th, 2017 7:30PM EST
Where: BBVA Compass Stadium—Houston, Texas
Both Canada and Costa Rica will enter their match Tuesday evening the recipients of 3 points from their respective opening matches of Group A. Perhaps the more surprising of the two is the fact that Canada are on top of Group A after a commanding 4-2 victory over French Guiana. They will be coming into this match riding high on their recent momentum, but also fully aware that a draw with Costa Rica will more than likely be enough to see them through the group stages for the first time since 2009. Canada are sporting a youthful but talented squad that will be looking to prove their worth against one of the best sides CONCACAF has to offer.
If Canada are riding high on the momentum gained after defeating relative minnow French Guiana, then Costa Rica have to be more than ecstatic regarding their first ever win against Honduras in the Gold Cup. The fact that they defeated will come as a surprise to very few when you look at the squad Costa Rica has brought to this year’s rendition of the Gold Cup. All things considered, there are few teams who look to be as determined to bring home hardware as the Costa Ricans.
Match Overview and Analysis
Canada (+390) may have looked to be a competent, talented squad in their group opener, but you also have to consider that they were playing one of the weakest teams in the tournament. On top of that, their roster is full of young players who have not yet proven themselves on the international stage against a team as powerful and experienced as Costa Rica (+125).
All that you really need to know with regard to this matchup is that Canada’s headline story from their first match is the fact that a 16-year old scored 2 second half goals. While that, in and of itself, is quite impressive, it is going to be infinitely more difficult for that same teenager (Alphonso Davies) to replicate his match 1 performance. When it comes to how Canada’s first performance will translate in their second outing, you need to look at their giving up 2 goals to French Guiana. With all due respect to the Caribbeans, they are not a team that should be able to get even one goal against you, let alone 2. When looking at this, I think the Costa Ricans’ mouths will be watering.
Canada’s inexperience is going to match up poorly against a nitty, gritty Costa Rican team that can really battle. If Canada do not assert dominance early on in this one they are going to be fighting an increasingly uphill battle. Like most Central American teams, Costa Rica like to play a flashy game style that grows increasingly difficult to defend as it is able to persist. For Canada to have any sort of hope in this one they are going to have to disrupt any semblance of a groove that Costa Rica get themselves into. Canada is an improving side, but there is still a lot of improvement that needs to happen before they have a realistic chance against this type of Costa Rican side.
Betting Predictions
As far as what you should bet on, I think the easy answer is the Costa Rican moneyline (+125) as offered by Bovada. The +125 odds are great for a team that I am fairly certain will have no problems dominating Canada in every facet of the game. As was mentioned above, if Canada can disrupt Costa Rican play early on, they have a chance of taking something from this match. That being said, I do not think there is much of any likelihood that Canada will have success stopping Los Ticos.
The over/under for this match is listed by Bovada at 2 goals (-115/-115). Being that Canada is going to rely heavily on their attacking players, I think that will leave them open in the back. Even if Canada do play a conservative style of football, Costa Rica is more than capable of getting past their back line. I think the over (-115) is the wager you have to go with in this one.
There is an alternate 2.5 goal over/under (+165/-220) for this match, and I think the over (+165) offers a lot of value. This match is going to be a lot more action-packed than the oddsmakers are giving it credit for. Costa Rica have proven themselves on the international stage and are one of the best teams in this year’s Gold Cup. Canada, though unproven, have just rattled off 4 goals in their most recent match. Even if their opponent was weak, the fact of the matter is that any 4-goal performance on the international stage is worth talking about. All things considered, I think this match is set up to be high-scoring.