College Football Betting for September 23, 2016
Three college football games on Friday’s card–we’ve got plays in two of them:
COLLEGE FOOTBALL BETTING FOR SEPTEMBER 23, 2016:
TCU AT SMU:
Battle of the Metroplex…well, sort of since the game is pretty much a mismatch with TCU a -20 road favorite. Of course I use the term ‘road’ loosely since the two schools are separated by about a half hour drive down I-30.
Both teams are 2-1 SU on the season with all of the wins coming against a dubious level of opposition. The Horned Frogs beat FCS foe South Dakota State in their opening game, lost to Arkansas in double overtime, and then bounced back to beat a hapless Iowa State team (5-22 SU since 2014). TCU is 0-3 against the spread this year which strongly suggests that they’re overvalued.
SMU is 2-1 as well but that’s more a function of scheduling than performance. The Mustangs opened their season with a 34-21 win at North Texas (1-11 in 2015), got thumped 40-13 at Baylor though managed to cover the spread as a +34.5 point underdog. Last week they beat FCS entrant Liberty at home 29-14 but failed to cover as a -15.5 favorite leaving SMU at 2-1 against the spread. SMU looked to be heading in the right direction at the start of the decade but it’s now ‘business as usual’ with a 1-10 SU season in 2014 and a 2-10 season last year.
The essential question here is this: Is SMU significantly better than last year when TCU won 56-37 but didn’t cover as a -36.5 favorite or in 2014 when TCU won 56-0 at SMU and covered as -31 chalk? In some phases of the game it doesn’t really look like it. Baylor played a very sloppy game against them on 9/10 turning the ball over 3 times but still won 40-13. The defense is as porous as ever and TCU should be able to score at will. The offense is showing improvement under second year head coach and former Clemson offensive coordinator Chad Morris. A freshman laden SMU team in 2015 improved by 114 yards per game over the previous season and returned 9 starters on offense though two of them–quarterback Matt Davis and lineman Chad Pursley–are out for the season. That hasn’t muted enthusiasm on the SMU campus over the team’s 2-1 start which equals their entire win total from 2015.
SMU has been a terrible pointspread team at home (4-10 ATS L3 years) and are 1-21 SU/8-14 ATS as an underdog. TCU, meanwhile, has been a horrible road favorite on a 4-12 ATS run in that role. The Horned Frogs aren’t a pretty weak defensive team ranked #83 in yards per game (403) and #102 in points allowed per game (34). Making those numbers even worse is their level of competition–Arkansas is legit but their other two games were against a FCS team and a Iowa State team that went 3-8 last year. Probably asking too much for SMU to pull the outright upset but their improved offense should score enough points to stay inside this generous number. TCU has a much bigger game with Oklahoma on deck that could divert their focus from the task at hand here.
BET SMU +21 OVER TCU
WYOMING AT EASTERN MICHIGAN:
A downright bizarre non-conference matchup as the Wyoming Cowboys head to Ypsilanti, Michigan to take on Eastern Michigan. This is a return date from last year when Eastern Michigan upset Wyoming in Laramie (more about that in a moment). Wyoming is 3-1 on the season following last week’s easy win over FCS foe Cal Davis. The Cowboys led 35-9 at halftime and coasted home which allowed them to rest running back in Brian Hill and quarterback in Josh Allen. Eastern Michigan is 2-1 so far but that has a lot more to do with scheduling (wins against Miss Valley State and Charlotte) than anything else. In their only game against credible opposition this year they were manhandled 61-21 at Missouri.
Back to last year’s meeting in Laramie–that result has given this game a significant ‘revenge motive’ for Wyoming. Last year Eastern Michigan was as horrible as ever going 1-11. Their only win? Against Wyoming in Laramie. It was EMU’s first road win against a 1-A/FBS team in 27 years. In all fairness, Wyoming wasn’t much of a team either last year finishing 2-10 but the loss to perennial doormat Eastern Michigan looked to completely suck the life out of the Cowboys. EMU has been one of the most consistently bad teams in the country over the past decade or so. They finished 6-6 in 2011 but have since turned in seasons of 2-10, 2-10, 2-10 and 1-11. They’ve also posted a losing record against the spread in each of those seasons.
The Cowboys have been a horrible favorite (0-5 ATS L3) but their pointspread struggles are nothing compared to Eastern Michigan. EMU is on a 16-34-1 ATS run including a horrible 13-30 ATS run at home. Wyoming now has a solid running game and a capable quarterback and has shown improvement on defense. Money came for Eastern Michigan during the day on Thursday with the line moving off the key number of 3 to 2.5 at a number of sportsbooks. Eagles do return 8 starters on both sides of the ball but people have a tendency to make too much out returning starters and seldom look at it in context. Returning starters from a winning or improving team is a great thing. Starters returning from a 1-11 team not so much.
Wyoming isn’t anything special in the ‘big picture’ but in terms of this match up have the better skill position players who should have big games against the Eastern Michigan defense (ranked #123 in scoring defense last year allowing 42.1 PPG and #123 in yards per game allowing 519). This is a big game for Wyoming due to the embarassing loss at home last year. This is only the second time in three years that Eastern Michigan has been an underdog of less than a FG (+2 LY at home against Army). This is as far East as Wyoming will travel this year and a motivated Cowboys’ team should come away with a win.
BET WYOMING -2.5 OVER EASTERN MICHIGAN