Angels, Nats Evenly Matched Heading Into Series Finale

Who: Washington Nationals v. Los Angeles Angels

When: Wednesday July 19th, 2017 10:00PM EST

Where: Angel Stadium—Anaheim, California

The Washington Nationals have been one of the best teams in Major League Baseball this season, and currently lay claim to the 3rd most wins in the league. The Nationals also boast a more than 11-game lead atop the NL East. To make a long story short, it would be completely unexpected were the Nationals to not make the post-season. On the back of solid pitching (both from starters as well as the bullpen) and strong hitting, the Nats look a force to be reckoned with.

The Angels, unlike the Nationals, have been struggling all season long to establish some sort of identity. Before the All-Star Break it looked like they might be making a push to make a post-season appearance, but those hopes seem to be fading, and fast. The Angels followed up losing 2 of 3 to the Rays by losing their opener with the Nationals on Tuesday night. The Angels are nearly 20 games off the AL West pace, but in their defense this division looked to be wrapped up by the Astros back in the beginning of May. If they want any hope at all of making a post-season appearance, they will have to start winning against both the league’s best, as well as the league’s worst. It starts tonight against one of the best teams MLB has to offer.

Game Overview and Analysis

The Washington Nationals (-110) may not be favored in this one, and that has everything to do with who is taking the mound for them. On the mound for the Nationals will be Gio Gonzalez (8-4 2.66 ERA). Though, when you think of strong Nationals pitchers you usually think of names like Strasburg and Scherzer, Gio Gonzalez has been playing well, too. While his winning record is a plus, the aspect of Gio’s game that we have really focused on for this one is his ability to prevent runs from crossing the plate. Putting this perfectly into perspective is a cross-section of Gonzalez’s last 4 games.

During this span, Gonzalez went 1-3, but only gave up more than 1 run on one occasion, and during that outing he only gave up 3. These losses were much more attributable to the Nationals’ bats not living up to expectations. To make a long story short, Gonzalez has outperformed his record. If he continues to be as strong as he has been, I do not see him running into too many problems against the Angels on Wednesday.

If you tried to pinpoint why the Angels (-110) have been falling out of the playoff race in the last few weeks, it would be difficult to point at just one aspect of their game that has been lacking. In reality, from pitching to hitting, and just about everywhere in between, we have seen the Angels underperform in recent weeks. Hoping to turn that around on Wednesday will be Ricky Nolasco (4-10 4.82 ERA). As you can see, the 11-year veteran is having a year he will want to quickly forget. His inability to command his ball placement has resulted in loss after loss, with high run totals occurring in most, if not all, of them.

His last 3 losses alone have combined for a total of 18 earned runs, or at least 6 earned runs every time he steps to the mound. With that being said, Nolasco is also capable of outputting a wholly solid performance the likes of which would put him up there with the best pitchers in the league. What Nolasco will we see on Wednesday? Only time will tell.

Betting Prediction

If you are looking at moneyline wagers to take in this one, I think you have to go with the Nationals at the -110 odds that are being offered by Bovada. The Nationals are not only one of the best teams in MLB, they are starting one of their better pitchers. Put simply, the Nationals have a better team in just about every phase of play and I expect that to show right away.

The over/under for this game is currently listed at an even 9 runs (-115/-105). I think that the total number of runs scored will exceed 9 for a few reasons. For one, Nolasco is prone to giving up many runs. In his last outing he gave up 8 earned. Add to this the fact that the Nationals are a solid hitting team in their own right and I think the potential for a lot of runs exists. What’s more, the Angels are no offensive slacks themselves. They are fully capable of getting a few runs on the board.

The Nationals are listed as -1.5 run favorites (+145) on Bovada, however I would not recommend taking that pick unless you are feeling especially confident. While I think it is possible, there is an off chance that Nolasco puts on the solid performance we all know he more than capable of.