2018 Major League Baseball Bench Clearing Brawl Betting Odds

–Major League Baseball has its share of ‘bench clearing brawls’

–Wednesday, April 11 saw two games interrupted by a bench clearing brawl.

–One fight on Wednesday was between longtime rivals Boston and the New York Yankees.

A couple of bench clearing brawls in Major League Baseball games on Wednesday and the sports media acts like the very foundation of fair and honest competition is being threatened. Well, at least some of them. The reaction to the brawls between the Colorado Rockies v. San Diego Padres and the New York Yankees v. Boston Red Sox is invariably one of two divergent ‘takes’:

1) It’s funny because baseball players can’t fight like Marvin Hagler and Thomas Hearns

or

2) It’s real serious and baseball has to do something lest the game be taken over by pugilistic reprobates. Think of the children! It’s toxic masculinity! Or racism! Whatever…it’s an epidemic!!

Actually, that’s the collective sports media reaction every time there’s a high profile baseball brawl. Check out the links above or do a bit of Googling on ‘baseball fights’ or ‘baseball bench clearing brawls’. You’ll find the same tired prattle passing as analysis dating back to the 1990s. I’d imagine you could go back even further but at one point there wasn’t an Internet and you’d have to look in local newspapers.

One newspaper got it right. Sort of. AzCentral.com helpfully points out that “In recent years, bench-clearing brawls in baseball have become a rarity.” We can quibble about the ‘recent years’ thing but whatever. They then screw it up by getting in a lather about the 2018 ‘bench clearing brawl pandemic’!

But not this year — and especially not on Wednesday, as two all-out brawls erupted and saw a total of eight ejections. The season is just two weeks old, and we’ve already have several such incidences.

THE REALITY OF BASEBALL ‘BENCH CLEARING BRAWLS’

In my line of work we refer to what is going on here as a product of ‘recency bias‘. It’s a cognitive bias that extrapolates what someone witnesses in the recent past (eg: two bench clearing baseball brawls on one day) into the future incorrectly inferring that the short term tendency is predictive of what will happen years down the road. There’s also a little bit of selection bias at play–that’s when someone overemphasizes data that validates their beliefs and minimizes or ignores data to the contrary. That’s also why you find the same basic narrative on Major League Baseball brawls dating back several decades.

In the average Major League Baseball season there is approximately 16 games with a bench clearing brawl out of a schedule consisting of 2,430 games. This translates to a brawl every 151.1 games but there’s no guarantee that it’ll be evenly distributed. That’s what’s going on here. In the average Major League Baseball game there’s less than a 1% chance a bench clearing incident will occur. This is a valuable lesson not only in sports but for anything that the mainstream media, politicians, etc. try to suggest is an ‘epidemic’–they invariably fail to hold up to statistical scrutiny.

Here’s one thing that is certain–there will never, ever be a post brawl quote as good as the words uttered by former Boston Red Sox pitcher Bill Lee. After a 1976 brawl with the hated New York Yankees, Lee described the Bronx Bombers as “a bunch of hookers swinging their purses”.

‘Brawl epidemic’ or not, I’m going to set some odds on bench clearing brawls and fights for the rest of the 2018 Major League Baseball season. I’ve also included some statistical prop odds based on batter and pitcher HBP (hit by pitcher) totals. When a brawl does occur in baseball it often starts with one player getting plunked by an opposing pitcher.

2018 MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL FIGHT/BRAWL PROPOSITION ODDS

WILL THERE BE A BENCH CLEARING INCIDENT IN THE BOSTON RED SOX/NEW YORK YANKEES SERIES AT YANKEE STADIUM BEGINNING MAY 8, 2018?

Yes: +300
No: -350

WILL THERE BE A BENCH CLEARING INCIDENT DURING THE 2018 MLB PLAYOFFS OR WORLD SERIES?

Yes: +600
No: -750

TOTAL NUMBER OF BENCH CLEARING BRAWLS IN THE 2018 MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL REGULAR SEASON?

Over 15.5: +130
Under 15.5: -150

Includes all bench clearing incidents from opening day through the end of the 2018 MLB regular season

MOST PLAYERS/COACHES/MANAGERS EJECTED FROM A SINGLE GAME DUE TO A BENCH CLEARING BRAWL DURING 2018 MLB REGULAR SEASON?

Over 7.5: +150
Under 7.5: -170

TOTAL NUMBER OF PLAYERS SUSPENDED FOR FIGHTING DURING 2018 MLB REGULAR SEASON?

Over 5.5: -150
Under 5.5: +130

Includes all fighting suspensions from opening day through the end of the 2018 MLB regular season. Reason for suspension must be indicated as involvement in a fight or a brawl. Wager will be graded based on information from Sportrac.com.

LONGEST PLAYER SUSPENSION FOR FIGHTING BY NUMBER OF GAMES DURING THE 2018 MLB REGULAR SEASON?

Over 7.5 Games: +130
Under 7.5 Games: -150

Includes all fighting suspensions from opening day through the end of the 2018 MLB regular season. Reason for suspension must be indicated as involvement in a fight or a brawl. Wager will be graded based on information from Sportrac.com.

NUMBER OF NEW YORK YANKEES PLAYERS SUSPENDED FOR FIGHTING DURING 2018 MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL REGULAR SEASON?

Over 2.5: +150
Under 2.5: -170

Includes all fighting suspensions from opening day through the end of the 2018 MLB regular season. Reason for suspension must be indicated as involvement in a fight or a brawl. Wager will be graded based on information from Sportrac.com.

NUMBER OF BOSTON RED SOX PLAYERS SUSPENDED FOR FIGHTING DURING 2018 MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL REGULAR SEASON?

Over 2.5: +130
Under 2.5: -150

Includes all fighting suspensions from opening day through the end of the 2018 MLB regular season. Reason for suspension must be indicated as involvement in a fight or a brawl. Wager will be graded based on information from Sportrac.com.

HIT BY PITCHER (HBP) PROPOSITION BETTING ODDS

NUMBER OF HIT BY PITCHERS (HBP) FOR THE MAJOR LEAGUE LEADING BATTER IN THIS STATISTICAL CATEGORY AT SEASON’S END?

Over 21.5: -170
Under 21.5: +150

NUMBER OF HIT BY PITCHERS (HBP) FOR THE AMERICAN LEAGUE LEADING BATTER IN THIS STATISTICAL CATEGORY AT SEASON’S END?

Over 20.5: -130
Under 20.5: +110

NUMBER OF HIT BY PITCHERS (HBP) FOR THE NATIONAL LEAGUE LEADING BATTER IN THIS STATISTICAL CATEGORY AT SEASON’S END?

Over 20.5: -130
Under 20.5: +110

NUMBER OF HIT BY PITCHERS (HBP) FOR THE MAJOR LEAGUE LEADING PITCHER IN THIS STATISTICAL CATEGORY AT SEASON’S END?

Over 16.5: -150
Under 16.5: +130

NUMBER OF HIT BY PITCHERS (HBP) FOR THE AMERICAN LEAGUE LEADING BATTER IN THIS STATISTICAL CATEGORY AT SEASON’S END?

Over 15.5: +110
Under 15.5: -130

NUMBER OF HIT BY PITCHERS (HBP) FOR THE NATIONAL LEAGUE LEADING BATTER IN THIS STATISTICAL CATEGORY AT SEASON’S END?

Over 15.5: -130
Under 15.5: +110

NUMBER OF HIT BY PITCHERS (HBP) FOR THE MAJOR LEAGUE LEADING TEAM PITCHING STAFF IN THIS STATISTICAL CATEGORY AT SEASON’S END?

Over 75.5: -140
Under 75.5: +120

NUMBER OF HIT BY PITCHERS (HBP) FOR THE MAJOR LEAGUE TEAM BATTING LEADERS IN THIS STATISTICAL CATEGORY AT SEASON’S END?

Over 86.5: +110
Under 86.5: -130

WILL THE NEW YORK YANKEES OR BOSTON RED SOX PITCHING STAFF LEAD THE MAJOR LEAGUE IN HIT BY PITCHER AT SEASON’S END?

Yes: +600
No: -750

WILL THE NEW YORK YANKEES OR BOSTON RED SOX BATTERS LEAD THE MAJOR LEAGUE IN HIT BY PITCHER AT SEASON’S END?

Yes: +750
No: -900

About the Author: Jim Murphy

For more than 25 years, Jim Murphy has written extensively on sports betting as well as handicapping theory and practice. Jim Murphy has been quoted in media from the Wall Street Journal to REASON Magazine. Murphy worked as a radio and podcasting host broadcasting to an international audience that depended on his expertise and advice. Murphy is an odds making consultant for sports and 'non-sport novelty bets' focused on the entertainment business, politics, technology, financial markets and more.