2018 Academy Awards Betting Odds
–The 90th Annual Academy Awards will be held on March 4, 2018
– ‘The Shape of Water’ is nominated for 13 Academy Awards with ‘Dunkirk’ nominated for eight.
– Three of the four acting categories are dominated by huge moneyline favorites.
Awards shows just aren’t what they used to be and particularly film industry events. They’re definitely not as much fun to handicap and set odds on as they used to be. The Academy Awards in particular should be a display of Hollywood at its most sanctimonious. This trend started last year in the wake of Donald Trump’s election as President. The reality is that the entertainment industry was butthurt that Hillary Clinton didn’t win the election since the majority of Hollywood supported her at the very least, with plenty donating heavily to her campaign. They reacted like you’d expect any developmentally stunted child to react–freaking out because OMG DONALD TRUMP IS THE WORST THING TO EVER HAPPEN!!! The general premise was that Trump was so bad and such a threat to human decency that they couldn’t allow themselves ONE EVENING OF FUN lest barbarians overrun the city.
At the time, I hoped that was the nadir of Hollywood sanctimony but it won’t be. The Harvey Weinstein situation has made sure of that. Prior to his fall from grace in the wake of countless sexual harassment allegations Weinstein was by all accounts the most powerful man in Hollywood. The LA Times put Weinstein’s power in perspective in one of their Oscars previews:
“Harvey” was personally thanked or praised by award winners such as Matt Damon, Gwyneth Paltrow and Renée Zellweger in at least 34 Oscar speeches from 1993 to 2016, and no last name was required. According to one analysis of nearly 1,400 Oscar speeches, the man behind films such as “Pulp Fiction” and “The King’s Speech” was thanked more often than God.
The title of the article emphasizes the weight of his absence from the Academy Awards this year: “Why the Oscars won’t be the same without their ringmaster, Harvey Weinstein”. Unlike last year when the assembled Hollywood types were free to show their disdain for Trump, the showbiz world’s relationship with ‘Harvey’ is much more complex. The LA Times continues:
It’s been less than five months since Weinstein was banished from the industry, the academy and, ostensibly, the human race after numerous women — some famous, some not — came forward. Nearly 85 accusers have leveled claims against Weinstein since the New York Times published that first exposé in October, triggering a #MeToo tsunami that’s taken down men once considered too powerful to fall.
2018 Oscar host Jimmy Kimmel will inherent a room very different from the one presided over last year, when President Trump’s name was the one (mostly) not spoken, though POTUS’ impact was implicit in comments about supporting immigrants and resisting systemic racism. But Trump was an outsider, Weinstein was the ultimate insider, which makes dealing with him during the show all the more tricky.
A VERY DIFFICULT SITUATION FOR HOLLYWOOD INSIDERS
If you weren’t one of the 85 (and counting) actresses he was fondling there’s a good chance that you liked Harvey. He was the Democratic Party’s fundraising ‘point man’ in Los Angeles and once described by Bill Clinton as a ‘personal friend’. He got a lot of A-list actors the best roles of their career and got a lot of big films made. The $64,000 question is that why did it take so long for Weinstein’s behavior to come to light? In defense of the Clintons (those are words I never thought I’d write) they weren’t really part of Harvey’s milieu and ultimately he was just another person for the world’s most opportunistic married couple to take advantage of in their ‘pre-ordained’ rise to the top. They’ve at least got some ‘plausible deniability’ that they didn’t know the ‘real Harvey Weinstein’.
It’s a ‘tough sell’ for Hollywood insiders to do the same. Since there have been jokes made at the Oscars about Weinstein’s predilection for young starlets none of this really came from ‘out of the blue’. True, the ‘casting couch’ narrative has gone on since there’s been such a thing as ‘show biz’ but has usually been dismissed as the province of industry ‘bottom feeders’. Logic suggests that someone in Weinstein’s inner circle–representing some of the biggest names in Hollywood–was aware that he was engaged in problematic behavior. Some big names including Meryl Streep have been called out for looking the other way. Without speculating about individual Hollywood players knowledge of Weinstein’s antics there almost have to be quite a few that were aware of what was going on and possibly some who were abetting it.
The challenge now is for Hollywood–individually and collectively–show support for victims of sexual harassment when there’s a good chance that many in their rank helped facilitate it to some degree. Given how well liked Weinstein was before his denoument and the important role he’s had in the careers of countless show biz types it’s hard to see everyone completely throwing him under the bus like the Clinton’s did. Furthermore, they really don’t have that luxury given their individual and collective complicity in Weinstein’s rise to power and abuse thereof. It’ll be fun to watch and I can’t imagine it’ll be a very comfortable situation for anyone involved.
Here’s the odds on the 90th Academy Awards:
90TH ACADEMY AWARDS BETTING ODDS
TO WIN THE ACADEMY AWARD FOR ‘BEST PICTURE’
Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri: +100
The Shape of Water: +175
Lady Bird: +750
Get Out: +750
Dunkirk: +1500
Call Me By Your Name: +2500
Phantom Thread: +5000
Darkest Hour: +5000
The Post: +5000
TO WIN THE ACADEMY AWARD FOR ‘BEST ACTOR’
Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour): -2500
Timothee Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name): +1000
Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out): +1000
Harris Dickson (Beach Rats): +2000
Robert Pattinson (Good Time): +2000
TO WIN THE ACADEMY AWARD FOR ‘BEST ACTRESS’
Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri): -2500
Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird): +1000
Margot Robbie (I, Tonya): +1000
Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water): +2000
Meryl Streep (The Post): +2000
TO WIN THE ACADEMY AWARD FOR ‘BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR’
Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri): -1000
Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project): +450
Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World): +1500
Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water): +2500
Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri): +2500
TO WIN THE ACADEMY AWARD FOR ‘BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS’
Allison Janney (I, Tonya): -300
Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird): +250
Mary J. Blige (Mudbound): +1200
Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread): +1500
Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water): +1500
TO WIN THE ACADEMY AWARD FOR ‘BEST DIRECTOR’
Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water): -1250
Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk): +500
Jordan Peele (Get Out): +700
Greta Garwig (Lady Bird): +1000
Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread): +1500
TO WIN THE ACADEMY AWARD FOR ‘BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM’
A Fantastic Woman: -150
The Square: +175
The Insult: +700
Loveless: +1000
On Body and Soul: +1500
TO WIN THE ACADEMY AWARD FOR ‘BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY’
Call Me By Your Name: -2500
Molly’s Game: +1250
Mudbound: +1250
The Disaster Artist: +1500
Logan: +1500
TO WIN THE ACADEMY AWARD FOR ‘BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY’
Get Out: +125
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri: +150
Lady Bird: +250
The Shape of Water: +1500
The Big Sick: +1500
TO WIN THE ACADEMY AWARD FOR ‘BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY’?
Blade Runner 2049: -1500
Dunkirk: +700
The Shape of Water: +1000
Mudbound: +1500
Darkest Hour: +2000
TO WIN THE ACADEMY AWARD FOR ‘BEST FILM EDITING’?
Dunkirk: -250
Baby Driver: +150
The Shape of Water: +1750
I, Tonya: +2000
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri: +2000
TO WIN THE ACADEMY AWARD FOR ‘BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING’?
Darkest Hour: -2500
Wonder: +700
Victor and Abdul: +1750
TO WIN THE ACADEMY AWARD FOR ‘BEST ORIGINAL SCORE’?
The Shape of Water: -750
Dunkirk: +500
Phantom Thread: +750
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri: +2000
Star Wars: The Last Jedi: +2000
TO WIN THE ACADEMY AWARD FOR ‘BEST ORIGINAL SONG’?
Remember Me (Coco): -150
This is Me (The Greatest Showman): +125
Mystery of Love (Call Me By Your Name): +1250
Mighty River (Mudbound): +1250
Stand Up For Something (Marshall): +1500
TO WIN THE ACADEMY AWARD FOR ‘BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN’?
The Shape of Water: -500
Blade Runner 2049: +300
Dunkirk: +1500
Beauty and the Beast: +1500
Darkest Hour: +2500
TO WIN THE ACADEMY AWARD FOR ‘BEST SOUND EDITING’?
Dunkirk: -700
Baby Driver: +450
Blade Runner 2049: +1000
The Shape of Water: +1500
Star Wars: The Last Jedi: +2500
TO WIN THE ACADEMY AWARD FOR ‘BEST SOUND MIXING’?
Dunkirk: -1000
Baby Driver: +550
Blade Runner 2049: +1000
The Shape of Water: +1500
Star Wars: The Last Jedi: +2500
TO WIN THE ACADEMY AWARD FOR ‘BEST VISUAL EFFECTS’?
Blade Runner 2049: -175
War for the Planet of the Apes: +130
Star Wars: The Last Jedi: +1000
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2: +2000
Kong: Skull Island: +2000
TO WIN THE ACADEMY AWARD FOR ‘BEST ANIMATED FEATURE’?
Coco: -5000
The Breadwinner: +1500
Loving Vincent: +1500
Ferdinand: +2500
Boss Baby: +2500
TO WIN THE ACADEMY AWARD FOR ‘BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM’?
Dear Basketball: -500
Lou: +350
Garden Party: +1000
Negative Space: +1000
Revolting Rhymes: +1500
TO WIN THE ACADEMY AWARD FOR ‘BEST COSTUME DESIGN’?
Phantom Thread: -2500
Beauty and the Beast: +750
The Shape of Water: +1500
Victoria and Abdul: +2500
Darkest Hour: +2500
TO WIN THE ACADEMY AWARD FOR ‘BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE’?
Faces Places: -350
Icarus: +225
Last Men in Aleppo: +750
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail: +2000
Strong Island: +2000
TO WIN THE ACADEMY AWARD FOR ‘BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT’?
Edith+Eddie: -300
Heroin(e): +250
Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405: +500
Knife Skills: +2000
Traffic Stop: +2000
TO WIN THE ACADEMY AWARD FOR ‘BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM’?
DeKalb Elementary: -250
The Silent Child: +300
The Eleven O’Clock: +750
My Nephew Emmett: +1250
Watu Wote: All of Us: +1500